2026 season · Week 5 · RB
Start Swift over Jeanty in PPR. A 24.3 implied team total vs 21.0; GB allows the 8th-most RB points; Projects 16.1 vs 15.2 PPR points.
Ashton JeantyLVRB@ NE15.2 PPR pts
Floor 6 · median 14.1 · ceiling 27
A 21.0 implied team total vs 24.3; GB allows the 8th-most RB points; Projects 15.2 vs 16.1 PPR points.
Medium
D'Andre SwiftCHIRB@ GB16.1 PPR pts
Floor 6 · median 14.5 · ceiling 28
A 24.3 implied team total vs 21.0; GB allows the 8th-most RB points; Projects 16.1 vs 15.2 PPR points.
MediumAdd more players in Who Should I StartAshton Jeanty stats and usageD'Andre Swift stats and usageAll Week 5 projections
Both players come from the same weekly projection: a mean and an 80% range from 2,000 simulated games, scored in your format, and the chance he plays. Start goes to the higher expected points (chance to play × projection); within 10% is a Flex-level close call. The tier ranks each player against everyone at his position this week. Reasons are templates filled with the model's numbers.
Updated Tue, Oct 6, 2:39 PM ETFull methodology
Start Swift over Jeanty in PPR. A 24.3 implied team total vs 21.0; GB allows the 8th-most RB points; Projects 16.1 vs 15.2 PPR points.
D'Andre Swift: his 90th-percentile outcome is 28 PPR points against 27 for Ashton Jeanty, from 2,000 simulated games each.
Ashton Jeanty: a floor (10th percentile) of 6 PPR points vs 6, and a 98% chance to play vs 98%.
PPR: Jeanty 15.2, Swift 16.1; half-PPR: Jeanty 13.6, Swift 15.2; standard: Jeanty 12.0, Swift 14.2 (points if he plays).
