2026 season · Week 5 · RB
Start Jeanty over Irving in PPR. Higher ceiling (p90 27 vs 23); Projects 15.2 vs 12.6 PPR points; 16.6 projected carries.
Ashton JeantyLVRB@ NE15.2 PPR pts
Floor 6 · median 14.1 · ceiling 27
Higher ceiling (p90 27 vs 23); Projects 15.2 vs 12.6 PPR points; 16.6 projected carries.
Medium
Bucky IrvingTBRB@ DAL12.6 PPR pts
Floor 4 · median 11.5 · ceiling 23
Lower ceiling (p90 23 vs 27); Projects 12.6 vs 15.2 PPR points.
MediumAdd more players in Who Should I StartAshton Jeanty stats and usageBucky Irving stats and usageAll Week 5 projections
Both players come from the same weekly projection: a mean and an 80% range from 2,000 simulated games, scored in your format, and the chance he plays. Start goes to the higher expected points (chance to play × projection); within 10% is a Flex-level close call. The tier ranks each player against everyone at his position this week. Reasons are templates filled with the model's numbers.
Updated Tue, Oct 6, 2:39 PM ETFull methodology
Start Jeanty over Irving in PPR. Higher ceiling (p90 27 vs 23); Projects 15.2 vs 12.6 PPR points; 16.6 projected carries.
Ashton Jeanty: his 90th-percentile outcome is 27 PPR points against 23 for Bucky Irving, from 2,000 simulated games each.
Ashton Jeanty: a floor (10th percentile) of 6 PPR points vs 4, and a 98% chance to play vs 98%.
PPR: Jeanty 15.2, Irving 12.6; half-PPR: Jeanty 13.6, Irving 11.4; standard: Jeanty 12.0, Irving 10.2 (points if he plays).
