StartRB1 · #12
Derrick HenryBALRB@ ATL15.9 PPR pts
628
Floor 6 · median 14.5 · ceiling 28
- Plays
- 98%
- Implied total
- 20.3 (dog by 3)
- Matchup
- Neutral · 14th
- Snap share
- 62%▲4
Projects 15.9 vs 13.7 PPR points; 19.2 projected carries.
Medium2026 season · Week 5 · RB
Derrick Henry vs Rhamondre Stevenson: Who Should I Start in Week 5?
Start Henry over Stevenson in PPR. Projects 15.9 vs 13.7 PPR points; 19.2 projected carries.
Side-by-side comparison
Scoring
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Start Henry over Stevenson in PPR
Derrick HenryBALRB@ ATLSitRB2 · #14
Rhamondre StevensonNERBvs LV13.7 PPR pts
425
Floor 4 · median 12.4 · ceiling 25
- Plays
- 98%
- Implied total
- 24.5 (fav by 3.5)
- Matchup
- Neutral · 23rd
- Snap share
- 66%▲8
Projects 13.7 vs 15.9 PPR points.
MediumAdd more players in Who Should I StartDerrick Henry stats and usageRhamondre Stevenson stats and usageAll Week 5 projections
Related start/sit calls
How this works
Both players come from the same weekly projection: a mean and an 80% range from 2,000 simulated games, scored in your format, and the chance he plays. Start goes to the higher expected points (chance to play × projection); within 10% is a Flex-level close call. The tier ranks each player against everyone at his position this week. Reasons are templates filled with the model's numbers.
Updated Tue, Oct 6, 2:39 PM ETFull methodology
Frequently asked questions
Should I start Derrick Henry or Rhamondre Stevenson in Week 5?
Start Henry over Stevenson in PPR. Projects 15.9 vs 13.7 PPR points; 19.2 projected carries.
Who has the higher ceiling, Derrick Henry or Rhamondre Stevenson?
Derrick Henry: his 90th-percentile outcome is 28 PPR points against 25 for Rhamondre Stevenson, from 2,000 simulated games each.
Who is the safer start, Derrick Henry or Rhamondre Stevenson?
Derrick Henry: a floor (10th percentile) of 6 PPR points vs 4, and a 98% chance to play vs 98%.
What are Derrick Henry's and Rhamondre Stevenson's Week 5 projections?
PPR: Henry 15.9, Stevenson 13.7; half-PPR: Henry 15.2, Stevenson 12.4; standard: Henry 14.4, Stevenson 11.0 (points if he plays).