2026 season · Week 5 · QB
Toss-up between Nix and Purdy in PPR. Too close to call: 16.0 vs 16.1 projected PPR points; LAC allows the 3rd-fewest QB points.
Bo NixDENQB@ LAC16.4 PPR pts
Floor 7 · median 15.1 · ceiling 28
Too close to call: 16.0 vs 16.1 projected PPR points; LAC allows the 3rd-fewest QB points.
Medium
Brock PurdySFQB@ SEA16.5 PPR pts
Floor 7 · median 15.6 · ceiling 27
Too close to call: 16.1 vs 16.0 projected PPR points; SEA allows the 5th-fewest QB points.
MediumAdd more players in Who Should I StartBo Nix stats and usageBrock Purdy stats and usageAll Week 5 projections
Both players come from the same weekly projection: a mean and an 80% range from 2,000 simulated games, scored in your format, and the chance he plays. Start goes to the higher expected points (chance to play × projection); within 10% is a Flex-level close call. The tier ranks each player against everyone at his position this week. Reasons are templates filled with the model's numbers.
Updated Tue, Oct 6, 2:39 PM ETFull methodology
Toss-up between Nix and Purdy in PPR. Too close to call: 16.0 vs 16.1 projected PPR points; LAC allows the 3rd-fewest QB points.
Bo Nix: his 90th-percentile outcome is 28 PPR points against 27 for Brock Purdy, from 2,000 simulated games each.
Brock Purdy: a floor (10th percentile) of 7 PPR points vs 7, and a 98% chance to play vs 98%.
PPR: Nix 16.4, Purdy 16.5; half-PPR: Nix 16.4, Purdy 16.5; standard: Nix 16.4, Purdy 16.5 (points if he plays).
