2026 season · Week 5 · RB
Toss-up between Allen and Croskey-Merritt in PPR. Too close to call: 8.8 vs 8.6 projected PPR points; Allen's snap share has risen 2 straight weeks (31% → 94%); CLE allows the 4th-fewest RB points.
Braelon AllenNYJRBvs CLE9.0 PPR pts
Floor 2 · median 7.7 · ceiling 17
Too close to call: 8.8 vs 8.6 projected PPR points; Allen's snap share has risen 2 straight weeks (31% → 94%); CLE allows the 4th-fewest RB points.
Medium
Jacory Croskey-MerrittWASRBvs NYG9.9 PPR pts
Floor 3 · median 8.8 · ceiling 19
Too close to call: 8.6 vs 8.8 projected PPR points; Allen's snap share has risen 2 straight weeks (31% → 94%); NYG allows the 7th-most RB points.
LowAdd more players in Who Should I StartBraelon Allen stats and usageJacory Croskey-Merritt stats and usageAll Week 5 projections
Both players come from the same weekly projection: a mean and an 80% range from 2,000 simulated games, scored in your format, and the chance he plays. Start goes to the higher expected points (chance to play × projection); within 10% is a Flex-level close call. The tier ranks each player against everyone at his position this week. Reasons are templates filled with the model's numbers.
Updated Tue, Oct 6, 2:39 PM ETFull methodology
Toss-up between Allen and Croskey-Merritt in PPR. Too close to call: 8.8 vs 8.6 projected PPR points; Allen's snap share has risen 2 straight weeks (31% → 94%); CLE allows the 4th-fewest RB points.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt: his 90th-percentile outcome is 19 PPR points against 17 for Braelon Allen, from 2,000 simulated games each.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt: a floor (10th percentile) of 3 PPR points vs 2, and a 87% chance to play vs 98%.
PPR: Allen 9.0, Croskey-Merritt 9.9; half-PPR: Allen 8.4, Croskey-Merritt 9.4; standard: Allen 7.7, Croskey-Merritt 8.9 (points if he plays).
