2026 season · Week 5 · RB
Start Monangai over Allen in PPR. A 24.3 implied team total vs 21.0; GB allows the 8th-most RB points; Expected 9.3 vs 8.8 PPR points after the chance to play.
Braelon AllenNYJRBvs CLE9.0 PPR pts
Floor 2 · median 7.7 · ceiling 17
A 21.0 implied team total vs 24.3; CLE allows the 4th-fewest RB points; Expected 8.8 vs 9.3 PPR points after the chance to play.
Medium
Kyle MonangaiCHIRB@ GB10.7 PPR pts
Floor 3 · median 9.7 · ceiling 19
A 24.3 implied team total vs 21.0; GB allows the 8th-most RB points; Expected 9.3 vs 8.8 PPR points after the chance to play.
MediumAdd more players in Who Should I StartBraelon Allen stats and usageKyle Monangai stats and usageAll Week 5 projections
Both players come from the same weekly projection: a mean and an 80% range from 2,000 simulated games, scored in your format, and the chance he plays. Start goes to the higher expected points (chance to play × projection); within 10% is a Flex-level close call. The tier ranks each player against everyone at his position this week. Reasons are templates filled with the model's numbers.
Updated Tue, Oct 6, 2:39 PM ETFull methodology
Start Monangai over Allen in PPR. A 24.3 implied team total vs 21.0; GB allows the 8th-most RB points; Expected 9.3 vs 8.8 PPR points after the chance to play.
Kyle Monangai: his 90th-percentile outcome is 19 PPR points against 17 for Braelon Allen, from 2,000 simulated games each.
Kyle Monangai: a floor (10th percentile) of 3 PPR points vs 2, and a 87% chance to play vs 98%.
PPR: Allen 9.0, Monangai 10.7; half-PPR: Allen 8.4, Monangai 10.2; standard: Allen 7.7, Monangai 9.7 (points if he plays).
