2026 season · Week 5 · TE
Start McBride over Bowers in PPR. Projects 17.8 vs 13.9 PPR points; Higher ceiling (p90 31 vs 25); a 25.0 implied team total vs 21.0.
Brock BowersLVTE@ NE13.9 PPR pts
Floor 4 · median 12.5 · ceiling 25
Projects 13.9 vs 17.8 PPR points; Lower ceiling (p90 25 vs 31); a 21.0 implied team total vs 25.0.
Medium
Trey McBrideARITEvs DET17.8 PPR pts
Floor 6 · median 16.4 · ceiling 31
Projects 17.8 vs 13.9 PPR points; Higher ceiling (p90 31 vs 25); a 25.0 implied team total vs 21.0.
MediumAdd more players in Who Should I StartBrock Bowers stats and usageTrey McBride stats and usageAll Week 5 projections
Both players come from the same weekly projection: a mean and an 80% range from 2,000 simulated games, scored in your format, and the chance he plays. Start goes to the higher expected points (chance to play × projection); within 10% is a Flex-level close call. The tier ranks each player against everyone at his position this week. Reasons are templates filled with the model's numbers.
Updated Tue, Oct 6, 2:39 PM ETFull methodology
Start McBride over Bowers in PPR. Projects 17.8 vs 13.9 PPR points; Higher ceiling (p90 31 vs 25); a 25.0 implied team total vs 21.0.
Trey McBride: his 90th-percentile outcome is 31 PPR points against 25 for Brock Bowers, from 2,000 simulated games each.
Trey McBride: a floor (10th percentile) of 6 PPR points vs 4, and a 98% chance to play vs 98%.
PPR: Bowers 13.9, McBride 17.8; half-PPR: Bowers 11.2, McBride 14.2; standard: Bowers 8.4, McBride 10.5 (points if he plays).
