2026 season · Week 5 · TE
Start McBride over LaPorta in PPR. Projects 17.8 vs 12.8 PPR points; Higher ceiling (p90 31 vs 24); 7.3 projected catches for McBride vs 4.6, which PPR rewards.
Sam LaPortaDETTE@ ARI12.8 PPR pts
Floor 3 · median 11.4 · ceiling 24
Projects 12.8 vs 17.8 PPR points; Lower ceiling (p90 24 vs 31); 7.3 projected catches for McBride vs 4.6, which PPR rewards.
Medium
Trey McBrideARITEvs DET17.8 PPR pts
Floor 6 · median 16.4 · ceiling 31
Projects 17.8 vs 12.8 PPR points; Higher ceiling (p90 31 vs 24); 7.3 projected catches for McBride vs 4.6, which PPR rewards.
MediumAdd more players in Who Should I StartSam LaPorta stats and usageTrey McBride stats and usageAll Week 5 projections
Both players come from the same weekly projection: a mean and an 80% range from 2,000 simulated games, scored in your format, and the chance he plays. Start goes to the higher expected points (chance to play × projection); within 10% is a Flex-level close call. The tier ranks each player against everyone at his position this week. Reasons are templates filled with the model's numbers.
Updated Tue, Oct 6, 2:39 PM ETFull methodology
Start McBride over LaPorta in PPR. Projects 17.8 vs 12.8 PPR points; Higher ceiling (p90 31 vs 24); 7.3 projected catches for McBride vs 4.6, which PPR rewards.
Trey McBride: his 90th-percentile outcome is 31 PPR points against 24 for Sam LaPorta, from 2,000 simulated games each.
Trey McBride: a floor (10th percentile) of 6 PPR points vs 3, and a 98% chance to play vs 98%.
PPR: LaPorta 12.8, McBride 17.8; half-PPR: LaPorta 10.5, McBride 14.2; standard: LaPorta 8.3, McBride 10.5 (points if he plays).
