2026 season · Week 5 · TE
Start LaPorta over Kittle in PPR. A 29.5 implied team total vs 22.3; Projects 12.8 vs 12.1 PPR points; ARI allows the 3rd-most TE points (early-season DvP is a weak signal).
George KittleSFTE@ SEA12.1 PPR pts
Floor 3 · median 10.6 · ceiling 23
A 22.3 implied team total vs 29.5; Projects 12.1 vs 12.8 PPR points; ARI allows the 3rd-most TE points (early-season DvP is a weak signal).
Medium
Sam LaPortaDETTE@ ARI12.8 PPR pts
Floor 3 · median 11.4 · ceiling 24
A 29.5 implied team total vs 22.3; Projects 12.8 vs 12.1 PPR points; ARI allows the 3rd-most TE points (early-season DvP is a weak signal).
MediumAdd more players in Who Should I StartGeorge Kittle stats and usageSam LaPorta stats and usageAll Week 5 projections
Both players come from the same weekly projection: a mean and an 80% range from 2,000 simulated games, scored in your format, and the chance he plays. Start goes to the higher expected points (chance to play × projection); within 10% is a Flex-level close call. The tier ranks each player against everyone at his position this week. Reasons are templates filled with the model's numbers.
Updated Tue, Oct 6, 2:39 PM ETFull methodology
Start LaPorta over Kittle in PPR. A 29.5 implied team total vs 22.3; Projects 12.8 vs 12.1 PPR points; ARI allows the 3rd-most TE points (early-season DvP is a weak signal).
Sam LaPorta: his 90th-percentile outcome is 24 PPR points against 23 for George Kittle, from 2,000 simulated games each.
Sam LaPorta: a floor (10th percentile) of 3 PPR points vs 3, and a 98% chance to play vs 98%.
PPR: Kittle 12.1, LaPorta 12.8; half-PPR: Kittle 9.8, LaPorta 10.5; standard: Kittle 7.5, LaPorta 8.3 (points if he plays).
