2026 season · Week 5 · TE
Toss-up between LaPorta and Hockenson in PPR. Too close to call: 12.5 vs 12.4 projected PPR points; a 29.5 implied team total vs 22.0; ARI allows the 3rd-most TE points (early-season DvP is a weak signal). In half-PPR scoring the call flips to LaPorta. In standard scoring the call flips to LaPorta.
Sam LaPortaDETTE@ ARI12.8 PPR pts
Floor 3 · median 11.4 · ceiling 24
Too close to call: 12.5 vs 12.4 projected PPR points; a 29.5 implied team total vs 22.0; ARI allows the 3rd-most TE points (early-season DvP is a weak signal).
Medium
T.J. HockensonMINTE@ NO12.7 PPR pts
Floor 3 · median 11.0 · ceiling 24
Too close to call: 12.4 vs 12.5 projected PPR points; a 22.0 implied team total vs 29.5; ARI allows the 3rd-most TE points (early-season DvP is a weak signal).
MediumAdd more players in Who Should I StartSam LaPorta stats and usageT.J. Hockenson stats and usageAll Week 5 projections
Both players come from the same weekly projection: a mean and an 80% range from 2,000 simulated games, scored in your format, and the chance he plays. Start goes to the higher expected points (chance to play × projection); within 10% is a Flex-level close call. The tier ranks each player against everyone at his position this week. Reasons are templates filled with the model's numbers.
Updated Tue, Oct 6, 2:39 PM ETFull methodology
Toss-up between LaPorta and Hockenson in PPR. Too close to call: 12.5 vs 12.4 projected PPR points; a 29.5 implied team total vs 22.0; ARI allows the 3rd-most TE points (early-season DvP is a weak signal). In half-PPR scoring the call flips to LaPorta. In standard scoring the call flips to LaPorta.
T.J. Hockenson: his 90th-percentile outcome is 24 PPR points against 24 for Sam LaPorta, from 2,000 simulated games each.
T.J. Hockenson: a floor (10th percentile) of 3 PPR points vs 3, and a 98% chance to play vs 98%.
PPR: LaPorta 12.8, Hockenson 12.7; half-PPR: LaPorta 10.5, Hockenson 10.0; standard: LaPorta 8.3, Hockenson 7.3 (points if he plays).
