SitTE1 · #6
Isaiah LikelyNYGTE@ WAS11.1 PPR pts
321
Floor 3 · median 10.1 · ceiling 21
- Plays
- 98%
- Implied total
- 20.3 (dog by 3)
- Matchup
- Soft · 31st
- Target share
- 41%▲14
Lower ceiling (p90 21 vs 24); Projects 11.1 vs 12.7 PPR points.
Medium2026 season · Week 5 · TE
Isaiah Likely vs T.J. Hockenson: Who Should I Start in Week 5?
Start Hockenson over Likely in PPR. Higher ceiling (p90 24 vs 21); Projects 12.7 vs 11.1 PPR points.
Side-by-side comparison
Scoring
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Start Hockenson over Likely in PPR
Isaiah LikelyNYGTE@ WASStartTE1 · #4
T.J. HockensonMINTE@ NO12.7 PPR pts
324
Floor 3 · median 11.0 · ceiling 24
- Plays
- 98%
- Implied total
- 22.0 (fav by 1.5)
- Matchup
- Neutral · 18th
- Target share
- 39%▲20
Higher ceiling (p90 24 vs 21); Projects 12.7 vs 11.1 PPR points.
MediumAdd more players in Who Should I StartIsaiah Likely stats and usageT.J. Hockenson stats and usageAll Week 5 projections
Related start/sit calls
How this works
Both players come from the same weekly projection: a mean and an 80% range from 2,000 simulated games, scored in your format, and the chance he plays. Start goes to the higher expected points (chance to play × projection); within 10% is a Flex-level close call. The tier ranks each player against everyone at his position this week. Reasons are templates filled with the model's numbers.
Updated Tue, Oct 6, 2:39 PM ETFull methodology
Frequently asked questions
Should I start Isaiah Likely or T.J. Hockenson in Week 5?
Start Hockenson over Likely in PPR. Higher ceiling (p90 24 vs 21); Projects 12.7 vs 11.1 PPR points.
Who has the higher ceiling, Isaiah Likely or T.J. Hockenson?
T.J. Hockenson: his 90th-percentile outcome is 24 PPR points against 21 for Isaiah Likely, from 2,000 simulated games each.
Who is the safer start, Isaiah Likely or T.J. Hockenson?
T.J. Hockenson: a floor (10th percentile) of 3 PPR points vs 3, and a 98% chance to play vs 98%.
What are Isaiah Likely's and T.J. Hockenson's Week 5 projections?
PPR: Likely 11.1, Hockenson 12.7; half-PPR: Likely 8.7, Hockenson 10.0; standard: Likely 6.4, Hockenson 7.3 (points if he plays).