2026 season · Week 5 · TE
Start Likely over Johnson in PPR. Projects 11.1 vs 10.6 PPR points; WAS allows the 2nd-most TE points (early-season DvP is a weak signal). In standard scoring it is a toss-up.
Isaiah LikelyNYGTE@ WAS11.1 PPR pts
Floor 3 · median 10.1 · ceiling 21
Projects 11.1 vs 10.6 PPR points; WAS allows the 2nd-most TE points (early-season DvP is a weak signal).
Medium
Juwan JohnsonNOTEvs MIN10.6 PPR pts
Floor 3 · median 9.4 · ceiling 20
Projects 10.6 vs 11.1 PPR points; WAS allows the 2nd-most TE points (early-season DvP is a weak signal).
MediumAdd more players in Who Should I StartIsaiah Likely stats and usageJuwan Johnson stats and usageAll Week 5 projections
Both players come from the same weekly projection: a mean and an 80% range from 2,000 simulated games, scored in your format, and the chance he plays. Start goes to the higher expected points (chance to play × projection); within 10% is a Flex-level close call. The tier ranks each player against everyone at his position this week. Reasons are templates filled with the model's numbers.
Updated Tue, Oct 6, 2:39 PM ETFull methodology
Start Likely over Johnson in PPR. Projects 11.1 vs 10.6 PPR points; WAS allows the 2nd-most TE points (early-season DvP is a weak signal). In standard scoring it is a toss-up.
Isaiah Likely: his 90th-percentile outcome is 21 PPR points against 20 for Juwan Johnson, from 2,000 simulated games each.
Juwan Johnson: a floor (10th percentile) of 3 PPR points vs 3, and a 98% chance to play vs 98%.
PPR: Likely 11.1, Johnson 10.6; half-PPR: Likely 8.7, Johnson 8.4; standard: Likely 6.4, Johnson 6.2 (points if he plays).
