2026 season · Week 5 · TE
Start Johnson over Kraft in PPR. Projects 10.6 vs 9.8 PPR points; CHI allows the 6th-fewest TE points (early-season DvP is a weak signal). In standard scoring it is a toss-up.
Juwan JohnsonNOTEvs MIN10.6 PPR pts
Floor 3 · median 9.4 · ceiling 20
Projects 10.6 vs 9.8 PPR points; CHI allows the 6th-fewest TE points (early-season DvP is a weak signal).
Medium
Tucker KraftGBTEvs CHI9.8 PPR pts
Floor 2 · median 8.6 · ceiling 19
Projects 9.8 vs 10.6 PPR points; CHI allows the 6th-fewest TE points (early-season DvP is a weak signal).
MediumAdd more players in Who Should I StartJuwan Johnson stats and usageTucker Kraft stats and usageAll Week 5 projections
Both players come from the same weekly projection: a mean and an 80% range from 2,000 simulated games, scored in your format, and the chance he plays. Start goes to the higher expected points (chance to play × projection); within 10% is a Flex-level close call. The tier ranks each player against everyone at his position this week. Reasons are templates filled with the model's numbers.
Updated Tue, Oct 6, 2:39 PM ETFull methodology
Start Johnson over Kraft in PPR. Projects 10.6 vs 9.8 PPR points; CHI allows the 6th-fewest TE points (early-season DvP is a weak signal). In standard scoring it is a toss-up.
Juwan Johnson: his 90th-percentile outcome is 20 PPR points against 19 for Tucker Kraft, from 2,000 simulated games each.
Juwan Johnson: a floor (10th percentile) of 3 PPR points vs 2, and a 98% chance to play vs 98%.
PPR: Johnson 10.6, Kraft 9.8; half-PPR: Johnson 8.4, Kraft 7.9; standard: Johnson 6.2, Kraft 6.1 (points if he plays).
