2026 season · Week 5 · WR
Start Smith-Njigba over Lamb in PPR. Higher ceiling (p90 40 vs 35); Projects 22.9 vs 20.4 PPR points; 10.7 projected targets.
CeeDee LambDALWRvs TB20.4 PPR pts
Floor 8 · median 18.8 · ceiling 35
Lower ceiling (p90 35 vs 40); Projects 20.4 vs 22.9 PPR points; TB allows the 3rd-fewest WR points (early-season DvP is a weak signal).
Medium
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEAWRvs SF22.9 PPR pts
Floor 9 · median 20.9 · ceiling 40
Higher ceiling (p90 40 vs 35); Projects 22.9 vs 20.4 PPR points; 10.7 projected targets.
MediumAdd more players in Who Should I StartCeeDee Lamb stats and usageJaxon Smith-Njigba stats and usageAll Week 5 projections
Both players come from the same weekly projection: a mean and an 80% range from 2,000 simulated games, scored in your format, and the chance he plays. Start goes to the higher expected points (chance to play × projection); within 10% is a Flex-level close call. The tier ranks each player against everyone at his position this week. Reasons are templates filled with the model's numbers.
Updated Tue, Oct 6, 2:39 PM ETFull methodology
Start Smith-Njigba over Lamb in PPR. Higher ceiling (p90 40 vs 35); Projects 22.9 vs 20.4 PPR points; 10.7 projected targets.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba: his 90th-percentile outcome is 40 PPR points against 35 for CeeDee Lamb, from 2,000 simulated games each.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba: a floor (10th percentile) of 9 PPR points vs 8, and a 98% chance to play vs 98%.
PPR: Lamb 20.4, Smith-Njigba 22.9; half-PPR: Lamb 16.8, Smith-Njigba 18.9; standard: Lamb 13.3, Smith-Njigba 14.9 (points if he plays).
