StartWR1 · #2
CeeDee LambDALWRvs TB20.4 PPR pts
835
Floor 8 · median 18.8 · ceiling 35
- Plays
- 98%
- Implied total
- 28.5 (fav by 9.5)
- Matchup
- Tough · 3rd
- Target share
- 49%▲24
Projects 20.4 vs 20.1 PPR points; 9.7 projected targets.
Medium2026 season · Week 5 · WR
CeeDee Lamb vs Puka Nacua: Who Should I Start in Week 5?
Start Lamb over Nacua in PPR. Projects 20.4 vs 20.1 PPR points; 9.7 projected targets. In half-PPR scoring it is a toss-up. In standard scoring it is a toss-up.
Side-by-side comparison
Scoring
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Start Lamb over Nacua in PPR
CeeDee LambDALWRvs TBFlexWR1 · #3
Puka NacuaLARWRvs BUF20.1 PPR pts
735
Floor 7 · median 18.3 · ceiling 35
- Plays
- 98%
- Implied total
- 28.5 (fav by 2.5)
- Matchup
- Soft · 32nd
- Target share
- 24%▼9
Projects 20.1 vs 20.4 PPR points.
LowAdd more players in Who Should I StartCeeDee Lamb stats and usagePuka Nacua stats and usageAll Week 5 projections
Related start/sit calls
How this works
Both players come from the same weekly projection: a mean and an 80% range from 2,000 simulated games, scored in your format, and the chance he plays. Start goes to the higher expected points (chance to play × projection); within 10% is a Flex-level close call. The tier ranks each player against everyone at his position this week. Reasons are templates filled with the model's numbers.
Updated Tue, Oct 6, 2:39 PM ETFull methodology
Frequently asked questions
Should I start CeeDee Lamb or Puka Nacua in Week 5?
Start Lamb over Nacua in PPR. Projects 20.4 vs 20.1 PPR points; 9.7 projected targets. In half-PPR scoring it is a toss-up. In standard scoring it is a toss-up.
Who has the higher ceiling, CeeDee Lamb or Puka Nacua?
CeeDee Lamb: his 90th-percentile outcome is 35 PPR points against 35 for Puka Nacua, from 2,000 simulated games each.
Who is the safer start, CeeDee Lamb or Puka Nacua?
CeeDee Lamb: a floor (10th percentile) of 8 PPR points vs 7, and a 98% chance to play vs 98%.
What are CeeDee Lamb's and Puka Nacua's Week 5 projections?
PPR: Lamb 20.4, Nacua 20.1; half-PPR: Lamb 16.8, Nacua 16.6; standard: Lamb 13.3, Nacua 13.1 (points if he plays).