2026 season · Week 5 · WR
Start Nacua over Olave in PPR. Higher ceiling (p90 35 vs 31); a 28.5 implied team total vs 20.5; Projects 20.1 vs 18.1 PPR points.
Chris OlaveNOWRvs MIN18.1 PPR pts
Floor 7 · median 16.8 · ceiling 31
Lower ceiling (p90 31 vs 35); a 20.5 implied team total vs 28.5; Projects 18.1 vs 20.1 PPR points.
Medium
Puka NacuaLARWRvs BUF20.1 PPR pts
Floor 7 · median 18.3 · ceiling 35
Higher ceiling (p90 35 vs 31); a 28.5 implied team total vs 20.5; Projects 20.1 vs 18.1 PPR points.
MediumAdd more players in Who Should I StartChris Olave stats and usagePuka Nacua stats and usageAll Week 5 projections
Both players come from the same weekly projection: a mean and an 80% range from 2,000 simulated games, scored in your format, and the chance he plays. Start goes to the higher expected points (chance to play × projection); within 10% is a Flex-level close call. The tier ranks each player against everyone at his position this week. Reasons are templates filled with the model's numbers.
Updated Tue, Oct 6, 2:39 PM ETFull methodology
Start Nacua over Olave in PPR. Higher ceiling (p90 35 vs 31); a 28.5 implied team total vs 20.5; Projects 20.1 vs 18.1 PPR points.
Puka Nacua: his 90th-percentile outcome is 35 PPR points against 31 for Chris Olave, from 2,000 simulated games each.
Puka Nacua: a floor (10th percentile) of 7 PPR points vs 7, and a 98% chance to play vs 98%.
PPR: Olave 18.1, Nacua 20.1; half-PPR: Olave 14.5, Nacua 16.6; standard: Olave 10.9, Nacua 13.1 (points if he plays).
