2026 season · Week 5 · WR
Start St. Brown over Olave in PPR. Higher ceiling (p90 34 vs 31); a 29.5 implied team total vs 20.5; Projects 19.8 vs 18.1 PPR points.
Amon-Ra St. BrownDETWR@ ARI19.8 PPR pts
Floor 7 · median 18.2 · ceiling 34
Higher ceiling (p90 34 vs 31); a 29.5 implied team total vs 20.5; Projects 19.8 vs 18.1 PPR points.
Medium
Chris OlaveNOWRvs MIN18.1 PPR pts
Floor 7 · median 16.8 · ceiling 31
Lower ceiling (p90 31 vs 34); a 20.5 implied team total vs 29.5; Projects 18.1 vs 19.8 PPR points.
MediumAdd more players in Who Should I StartAmon-Ra St. Brown stats and usageChris Olave stats and usageAll Week 5 projections
Both players come from the same weekly projection: a mean and an 80% range from 2,000 simulated games, scored in your format, and the chance he plays. Start goes to the higher expected points (chance to play × projection); within 10% is a Flex-level close call. The tier ranks each player against everyone at his position this week. Reasons are templates filled with the model's numbers.
Updated Tue, Oct 6, 2:39 PM ETFull methodology
Start St. Brown over Olave in PPR. Higher ceiling (p90 34 vs 31); a 29.5 implied team total vs 20.5; Projects 19.8 vs 18.1 PPR points.
Amon-Ra St. Brown: his 90th-percentile outcome is 34 PPR points against 31 for Chris Olave, from 2,000 simulated games each.
Amon-Ra St. Brown: a floor (10th percentile) of 7 PPR points vs 7, and a 98% chance to play vs 98%.
PPR: St. Brown 19.8, Olave 18.1; half-PPR: St. Brown 16.4, Olave 14.5; standard: St. Brown 13.0, Olave 10.9 (points if he plays).
