2026 season · Week 5 · WR
Start Olave over Adams in PPR. Scoring decides it: in standard Adams would project ahead (1.4 points); 7.2 projected catches for Olave vs 5.0, which PPR rewards; Adams's target share has fallen 2 straight weeks (33% → 18%). In half-PPR scoring the call flips to Adams. In standard scoring the call flips to Adams.
Chris OlaveNOWRvs MIN18.1 PPR pts
Floor 7 · median 16.8 · ceiling 31
Scoring decides it: in standard Adams would project ahead (1.4 points); 7.2 projected catches for Olave vs 5.0, which PPR rewards; Adams's target share has fallen 2 straight weeks (33% → 18%).
Medium
Davante AdamsLARWRvs BUF17.5 PPR pts
Floor 5 · median 15.8 · ceiling 32
Scoring decides it: in standard Adams would project ahead (1.4 points); 7.2 projected catches for Olave vs 5.0, which PPR rewards; Adams's target share has fallen 2 straight weeks (33% → 18%).
MediumAdd more players in Who Should I StartChris Olave stats and usageDavante Adams stats and usageAll Week 5 projections
Both players come from the same weekly projection: a mean and an 80% range from 2,000 simulated games, scored in your format, and the chance he plays. Start goes to the higher expected points (chance to play × projection); within 10% is a Flex-level close call. The tier ranks each player against everyone at his position this week. Reasons are templates filled with the model's numbers.
Updated Tue, Oct 6, 2:39 PM ETFull methodology
Start Olave over Adams in PPR. Scoring decides it: in standard Adams would project ahead (1.4 points); 7.2 projected catches for Olave vs 5.0, which PPR rewards; Adams's target share has fallen 2 straight weeks (33% → 18%). In half-PPR scoring the call flips to Adams. In standard scoring the call flips to Adams.
Davante Adams: his 90th-percentile outcome is 32 PPR points against 31 for Chris Olave, from 2,000 simulated games each.
Chris Olave: a floor (10th percentile) of 7 PPR points vs 5, and a 98% chance to play vs 98%.
PPR: Olave 18.1, Adams 17.5; half-PPR: Olave 14.5, Adams 14.9; standard: Olave 10.9, Adams 12.4 (points if he plays).
