2026 season · Week 5 · WR
Toss-up between Adams and Wilson in PPR. Too close to call: 17.2 vs 17.0 projected PPR points; Adams's target share has fallen 2 straight weeks (33% → 18%); Wilson's target share has risen 3 straight weeks (19% → 37%). In half-PPR scoring the call flips to Adams. In standard scoring the call flips to Adams.
Davante AdamsLARWRvs BUF17.5 PPR pts
Floor 5 · median 15.8 · ceiling 32
Too close to call: 17.2 vs 17.0 projected PPR points; Adams's target share has fallen 2 straight weeks (33% → 18%); Wilson's target share has risen 3 straight weeks (19% → 37%).
Medium
Michael WilsonARIWRvs DET17.3 PPR pts
Floor 6 · median 16.1 · ceiling 31
Too close to call: 17.0 vs 17.2 projected PPR points; Wilson's target share has risen 3 straight weeks (19% → 37%); Adams's target share has fallen 2 straight weeks (33% → 18%).
MediumAdd more players in Who Should I StartDavante Adams stats and usageMichael Wilson stats and usageAll Week 5 projections
Both players come from the same weekly projection: a mean and an 80% range from 2,000 simulated games, scored in your format, and the chance he plays. Start goes to the higher expected points (chance to play × projection); within 10% is a Flex-level close call. The tier ranks each player against everyone at his position this week. Reasons are templates filled with the model's numbers.
Updated Tue, Oct 6, 2:39 PM ETFull methodology
Toss-up between Adams and Wilson in PPR. Too close to call: 17.2 vs 17.0 projected PPR points; Adams's target share has fallen 2 straight weeks (33% → 18%); Wilson's target share has risen 3 straight weeks (19% → 37%). In half-PPR scoring the call flips to Adams. In standard scoring the call flips to Adams.
Davante Adams: his 90th-percentile outcome is 32 PPR points against 31 for Michael Wilson, from 2,000 simulated games each.
Michael Wilson: a floor (10th percentile) of 6 PPR points vs 5, and a 98% chance to play vs 98%.
PPR: Adams 17.5, Wilson 17.3; half-PPR: Adams 14.9, Wilson 14.3; standard: Adams 12.4, Wilson 11.2 (points if he plays).
