2026 season · Week 5 · WR
Start Wilson over Higgins in PPR. Wilson's target share has risen 3 straight weeks (19% → 37%); Projects 17.3 vs 16.8 PPR points; 10.1 projected targets. In standard scoring it is a toss-up.
Michael WilsonARIWRvs DET17.3 PPR pts
Floor 6 · median 16.1 · ceiling 31
Wilson's target share has risen 3 straight weeks (19% → 37%); Projects 17.3 vs 16.8 PPR points; 10.1 projected targets.
Medium
Tee HigginsCINWR@ MIA16.8 PPR pts
Floor 6 · median 15.4 · ceiling 30
Wilson's target share has risen 3 straight weeks (19% → 37%); Projects 16.8 vs 17.3 PPR points; MIA allows the 4th-fewest WR points (early-season DvP is a weak signal).
MediumAdd more players in Who Should I StartMichael Wilson stats and usageTee Higgins stats and usageAll Week 5 projections
Both players come from the same weekly projection: a mean and an 80% range from 2,000 simulated games, scored in your format, and the chance he plays. Start goes to the higher expected points (chance to play × projection); within 10% is a Flex-level close call. The tier ranks each player against everyone at his position this week. Reasons are templates filled with the model's numbers.
Updated Tue, Oct 6, 2:39 PM ETFull methodology
Start Wilson over Higgins in PPR. Wilson's target share has risen 3 straight weeks (19% → 37%); Projects 17.3 vs 16.8 PPR points; 10.1 projected targets. In standard scoring it is a toss-up.
Michael Wilson: his 90th-percentile outcome is 31 PPR points against 30 for Tee Higgins, from 2,000 simulated games each.
Michael Wilson: a floor (10th percentile) of 6 PPR points vs 6, and a 98% chance to play vs 98%.
PPR: Wilson 17.3, Higgins 16.8; half-PPR: Wilson 14.3, Higgins 13.9; standard: Wilson 11.2, Higgins 11.0 (points if he plays).
