2026 season · Week 5 · WR
Start Wilson over Flowers in PPR. Wilson's target share has risen 3 straight weeks (19% → 37%); a 25.0 implied team total vs 20.3; Projects 17.3 vs 16.6 PPR points.
Michael WilsonARIWRvs DET17.3 PPR pts
Floor 6 · median 16.1 · ceiling 31
Wilson's target share has risen 3 straight weeks (19% → 37%); a 25.0 implied team total vs 20.3; Projects 17.3 vs 16.6 PPR points.
Medium
Zay FlowersBALWR@ ATL16.6 PPR pts
Floor 6 · median 15.1 · ceiling 29
Wilson's target share has risen 3 straight weeks (19% → 37%); a 20.3 implied team total vs 25.0; Projects 16.6 vs 17.3 PPR points.
MediumAdd more players in Who Should I StartMichael Wilson stats and usageZay Flowers stats and usageAll Week 5 projections
Both players come from the same weekly projection: a mean and an 80% range from 2,000 simulated games, scored in your format, and the chance he plays. Start goes to the higher expected points (chance to play × projection); within 10% is a Flex-level close call. The tier ranks each player against everyone at his position this week. Reasons are templates filled with the model's numbers.
Updated Tue, Oct 6, 2:39 PM ETFull methodology
Start Wilson over Flowers in PPR. Wilson's target share has risen 3 straight weeks (19% → 37%); a 25.0 implied team total vs 20.3; Projects 17.3 vs 16.6 PPR points.
Michael Wilson: his 90th-percentile outcome is 31 PPR points against 29 for Zay Flowers, from 2,000 simulated games each.
Michael Wilson: a floor (10th percentile) of 6 PPR points vs 6, and a 98% chance to play vs 98%.
PPR: Wilson 17.3, Flowers 16.6; half-PPR: Wilson 14.3, Flowers 13.4; standard: Wilson 11.2, Flowers 10.2 (points if he plays).
