2026 season · Week 5 · WR
Toss-up between Higgins and Flowers in PPR. Too close to call: 16.5 vs 16.2 projected PPR points; Flowers's target share has risen 2 straight weeks (25% → 35%); a 24.8 implied team total vs 20.3. In half-PPR scoring the call flips to Higgins. In standard scoring the call flips to Higgins.
Tee HigginsCINWR@ MIA16.8 PPR pts
Floor 6 · median 15.4 · ceiling 30
Too close to call: 16.5 vs 16.2 projected PPR points; Flowers's target share has risen 2 straight weeks (25% → 35%); a 24.8 implied team total vs 20.3.
Medium
Zay FlowersBALWR@ ATL16.6 PPR pts
Floor 6 · median 15.1 · ceiling 29
Too close to call: 16.2 vs 16.5 projected PPR points; Flowers's target share has risen 2 straight weeks (25% → 35%); a 20.3 implied team total vs 24.8.
MediumAdd more players in Who Should I StartTee Higgins stats and usageZay Flowers stats and usageAll Week 5 projections
Both players come from the same weekly projection: a mean and an 80% range from 2,000 simulated games, scored in your format, and the chance he plays. Start goes to the higher expected points (chance to play × projection); within 10% is a Flex-level close call. The tier ranks each player against everyone at his position this week. Reasons are templates filled with the model's numbers.
Updated Tue, Oct 6, 2:39 PM ETFull methodology
Toss-up between Higgins and Flowers in PPR. Too close to call: 16.5 vs 16.2 projected PPR points; Flowers's target share has risen 2 straight weeks (25% → 35%); a 24.8 implied team total vs 20.3. In half-PPR scoring the call flips to Higgins. In standard scoring the call flips to Higgins.
Tee Higgins: his 90th-percentile outcome is 30 PPR points against 29 for Zay Flowers, from 2,000 simulated games each.
Zay Flowers: a floor (10th percentile) of 6 PPR points vs 6, and a 98% chance to play vs 98%.
PPR: Higgins 16.8, Flowers 16.6; half-PPR: Higgins 13.9, Flowers 13.4; standard: Higgins 11.0, Flowers 10.2 (points if he plays).
