2026 season · Week 5 · WR
Start Flowers over Chase in PPR. Flowers's target share has risen 2 straight weeks (25% → 35%); Projects 16.6 vs 16.2 PPR points; 8.8 projected targets. In half-PPR scoring it is a toss-up. In standard scoring it is a toss-up.
Ja'Marr ChaseCINWR@ MIA16.2 PPR pts
Floor 5 · median 14.9 · ceiling 28
Flowers's target share has risen 2 straight weeks (25% → 35%); Projects 16.2 vs 16.6 PPR points; MIA allows the 4th-fewest WR points (early-season DvP is a weak signal).
Medium
Zay FlowersBALWR@ ATL16.6 PPR pts
Floor 6 · median 15.1 · ceiling 29
Flowers's target share has risen 2 straight weeks (25% → 35%); Projects 16.6 vs 16.2 PPR points; 8.8 projected targets.
MediumAdd more players in Who Should I StartJa'Marr Chase stats and usageZay Flowers stats and usageAll Week 5 projections
Both players come from the same weekly projection: a mean and an 80% range from 2,000 simulated games, scored in your format, and the chance he plays. Start goes to the higher expected points (chance to play × projection); within 10% is a Flex-level close call. The tier ranks each player against everyone at his position this week. Reasons are templates filled with the model's numbers.
Updated Tue, Oct 6, 2:39 PM ETFull methodology
Start Flowers over Chase in PPR. Flowers's target share has risen 2 straight weeks (25% → 35%); Projects 16.6 vs 16.2 PPR points; 8.8 projected targets. In half-PPR scoring it is a toss-up. In standard scoring it is a toss-up.
Zay Flowers: his 90th-percentile outcome is 29 PPR points against 28 for Ja'Marr Chase, from 2,000 simulated games each.
Zay Flowers: a floor (10th percentile) of 6 PPR points vs 5, and a 98% chance to play vs 98%.
PPR: Chase 16.2, Flowers 16.6; half-PPR: Chase 13.3, Flowers 13.4; standard: Chase 10.4, Flowers 10.2 (points if he plays).
