2026 season · Week 5 · WR
Toss-up between Wilson and Chase in PPR. Too close to call: 15.9 vs 15.9 projected PPR points; a 21.0 implied team total vs 24.8; 9.1 projected targets. In half-PPR scoring the call flips to Chase. In standard scoring the call flips to Chase.
Garrett WilsonNYJWRvs CLE16.2 PPR pts
Floor 6 · median 15.0 · ceiling 29
Too close to call: 15.9 vs 15.9 projected PPR points; a 21.0 implied team total vs 24.8; 9.1 projected targets.
Medium
Ja'Marr ChaseCINWR@ MIA16.2 PPR pts
Floor 5 · median 14.9 · ceiling 28
Too close to call: 15.9 vs 15.9 projected PPR points; a 24.8 implied team total vs 21.0; 8.3 projected targets.
MediumAdd more players in Who Should I StartGarrett Wilson stats and usageJa'Marr Chase stats and usageAll Week 5 projections
Both players come from the same weekly projection: a mean and an 80% range from 2,000 simulated games, scored in your format, and the chance he plays. Start goes to the higher expected points (chance to play × projection); within 10% is a Flex-level close call. The tier ranks each player against everyone at his position this week. Reasons are templates filled with the model's numbers.
Updated Tue, Oct 6, 2:39 PM ETFull methodology
Toss-up between Wilson and Chase in PPR. Too close to call: 15.9 vs 15.9 projected PPR points; a 21.0 implied team total vs 24.8; 9.1 projected targets. In half-PPR scoring the call flips to Chase. In standard scoring the call flips to Chase.
Garrett Wilson: his 90th-percentile outcome is 29 PPR points against 28 for Ja'Marr Chase, from 2,000 simulated games each.
Garrett Wilson: a floor (10th percentile) of 6 PPR points vs 5, and a 98% chance to play vs 98%.
PPR: Wilson 16.2, Chase 16.2; half-PPR: Wilson 13.0, Chase 13.3; standard: Wilson 9.8, Chase 10.4 (points if he plays).
