StartWR1 · #11
Garrett WilsonNYJWRvs CLE16.2 PPR pts
629
Floor 6 · median 15.0 · ceiling 29
- Plays
- 98%
- Implied total
- 21.0 (fav by 2.5)
- Matchup
- Neutral · 24th
- Target share
- 27%▼2
Projects 16.2 vs 15.0 PPR points; 9.1 projected targets.
Medium2026 season · Week 5 · WR
Garrett Wilson vs Nico Collins: Who Should I Start in Week 5?
Start Wilson over Collins in PPR. Projects 16.2 vs 15.0 PPR points; 9.1 projected targets. In standard scoring it is a toss-up.
Side-by-side comparison
Scoring
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Start Wilson over Collins in PPR
Garrett WilsonNYJWRvs CLEFlexWR1 · #12
Nico CollinsHOUWR@ TEN15.0 PPR pts
528
Floor 5 · median 13.7 · ceiling 28
- Plays
- 98%
- Implied total
- 22.5 (fav by 6.5)
- Matchup
- Soft · 26th
- Target share
- 31%▲4
Projects 15.0 vs 16.2 PPR points.
LowAdd more players in Who Should I StartGarrett Wilson stats and usageNico Collins stats and usageAll Week 5 projections
Related start/sit calls
How this works
Both players come from the same weekly projection: a mean and an 80% range from 2,000 simulated games, scored in your format, and the chance he plays. Start goes to the higher expected points (chance to play × projection); within 10% is a Flex-level close call. The tier ranks each player against everyone at his position this week. Reasons are templates filled with the model's numbers.
Updated Tue, Oct 6, 2:39 PM ETFull methodology
Frequently asked questions
Should I start Garrett Wilson or Nico Collins in Week 5?
Start Wilson over Collins in PPR. Projects 16.2 vs 15.0 PPR points; 9.1 projected targets. In standard scoring it is a toss-up.
Who has the higher ceiling, Garrett Wilson or Nico Collins?
Garrett Wilson: his 90th-percentile outcome is 29 PPR points against 28 for Nico Collins, from 2,000 simulated games each.
Who is the safer start, Garrett Wilson or Nico Collins?
Garrett Wilson: a floor (10th percentile) of 6 PPR points vs 5, and a 98% chance to play vs 98%.
What are Garrett Wilson's and Nico Collins's Week 5 projections?
PPR: Wilson 16.2, Collins 15.0; half-PPR: Wilson 13.0, Collins 12.4; standard: Wilson 9.8, Collins 9.8 (points if he plays).