2026 season · Week 5 · WR

Ja'Marr Chase vs Nico Collins: Who Should I Start in Week 5?

Start Chase over Collins in PPR. Projects 16.2 vs 15.0 PPR points; 8.3 projected targets.

Scoring

Start Chase over Collins in PPR

StartWR1 · #10

Ja'Marr ChaseCINWR@ MIA

16.2 PPR pts

528

Floor 5 · median 14.9 · ceiling 28

Plays: 98%
Implied total: 24.8 (fav by 7)
Matchup: Tough · 4th
Target share: 6%▼19

Projects 16.2 vs 15.0 PPR points; 8.3 projected targets.

Medium

FlexWR1 · #12

Nico CollinsHOUWR@ TEN

15.0 PPR pts

528

Floor 5 · median 13.7 · ceiling 28

Plays: 98%
Implied total: 22.5 (fav by 6.5)
Matchup: Soft · 26th
Target share: 31%▲4

Projects 15.0 vs 16.2 PPR points.

Low

Add more players in Who Should I Start Ja'Marr Chase stats and usage Nico Collins stats and usage All Week 5 projections

How this works

Both players come from the same weekly projection: a mean and an 80% range from 2,000 simulated games, scored in your format, and the chance he plays. Start goes to the higher expected points (chance to play × projection); within 10% is a Flex-level close call. The tier ranks each player against everyone at his position this week. Reasons are templates filled with the model's numbers.

Updated Tue, Oct 6, 2:39 PM ETFull methodology

Frequently asked questions

Should I start Ja'Marr Chase or Nico Collins in Week 5?

Start Chase over Collins in PPR. Projects 16.2 vs 15.0 PPR points; 8.3 projected targets.

Who has the higher ceiling, Ja'Marr Chase or Nico Collins?

Ja'Marr Chase: his 90th-percentile outcome is 28 PPR points against 28 for Nico Collins, from 2,000 simulated games each.

Who is the safer start, Ja'Marr Chase or Nico Collins?

Ja'Marr Chase: a floor (10th percentile) of 5 PPR points vs 5, and a 98% chance to play vs 98%.

What are Ja'Marr Chase's and Nico Collins's Week 5 projections?

PPR: Chase 16.2, Collins 15.0; half-PPR: Chase 13.3, Collins 12.4; standard: Chase 10.4, Collins 9.8 (points if he plays).

Side-by-side comparison