2026 season · Week 5 · WR
Start Higgins over Chase in PPR. Projects 16.8 vs 16.2 PPR points; 8.8 projected targets; MIA allows the 4th-fewest WR points (early-season DvP is a weak signal).
Ja'Marr ChaseCINWR@ MIA16.2 PPR pts
Floor 5 · median 14.9 · ceiling 28
Projects 16.2 vs 16.8 PPR points; MIA allows the 4th-fewest WR points (early-season DvP is a weak signal).
Medium
Tee HigginsCINWR@ MIA16.8 PPR pts
Floor 6 · median 15.4 · ceiling 30
Projects 16.8 vs 16.2 PPR points; 8.8 projected targets; MIA allows the 4th-fewest WR points (early-season DvP is a weak signal).
MediumAdd more players in Who Should I StartJa'Marr Chase stats and usageTee Higgins stats and usageAll Week 5 projections
Both players come from the same weekly projection: a mean and an 80% range from 2,000 simulated games, scored in your format, and the chance he plays. Start goes to the higher expected points (chance to play × projection); within 10% is a Flex-level close call. The tier ranks each player against everyone at his position this week. Reasons are templates filled with the model's numbers.
Updated Tue, Oct 6, 2:39 PM ETFull methodology
Start Higgins over Chase in PPR. Projects 16.8 vs 16.2 PPR points; 8.8 projected targets; MIA allows the 4th-fewest WR points (early-season DvP is a weak signal).
Tee Higgins: his 90th-percentile outcome is 30 PPR points against 28 for Ja'Marr Chase, from 2,000 simulated games each.
Tee Higgins: a floor (10th percentile) of 6 PPR points vs 5, and a 98% chance to play vs 98%.
PPR: Chase 16.2, Higgins 16.8; half-PPR: Chase 13.3, Higgins 13.9; standard: Chase 10.4, Higgins 11.0 (points if he plays).
