2026 season · Week 5 · WR
Start Olave over Wilson in PPR. Scoring decides it: in standard Wilson would project ahead (0.3 points); Projects 18.1 vs 17.3 PPR points; 10.5 projected targets. In half-PPR scoring it is a toss-up. In standard scoring the call flips to Wilson.
Chris OlaveNOWRvs MIN18.1 PPR pts
Floor 7 · median 16.8 · ceiling 31
Scoring decides it: in standard Wilson would project ahead (0.3 points); Projects 18.1 vs 17.3 PPR points; 10.5 projected targets.
Medium
Michael WilsonARIWRvs DET17.3 PPR pts
Floor 6 · median 16.1 · ceiling 31
Scoring decides it: in standard Wilson would project ahead (0.3 points); Projects 17.3 vs 18.1 PPR points.
MediumAdd more players in Who Should I StartChris Olave stats and usageMichael Wilson stats and usageAll Week 5 projections
Both players come from the same weekly projection: a mean and an 80% range from 2,000 simulated games, scored in your format, and the chance he plays. Start goes to the higher expected points (chance to play × projection); within 10% is a Flex-level close call. The tier ranks each player against everyone at his position this week. Reasons are templates filled with the model's numbers.
Updated Tue, Oct 6, 2:39 PM ETFull methodology
Start Olave over Wilson in PPR. Scoring decides it: in standard Wilson would project ahead (0.3 points); Projects 18.1 vs 17.3 PPR points; 10.5 projected targets. In half-PPR scoring it is a toss-up. In standard scoring the call flips to Wilson.
Chris Olave: his 90th-percentile outcome is 31 PPR points against 31 for Michael Wilson, from 2,000 simulated games each.
Chris Olave: a floor (10th percentile) of 7 PPR points vs 6, and a 98% chance to play vs 98%.
PPR: Olave 18.1, Wilson 17.3; half-PPR: Olave 14.5, Wilson 14.3; standard: Olave 10.9, Wilson 11.2 (points if he plays).
