2026 season · Week 5 · WR
Start St. Brown over Adams in PPR. Safer floor (p10 7 vs 5); Adams's target share has fallen 2 straight weeks (33% → 18%); a 29.5 implied team total.
Amon-Ra St. BrownDETWR@ ARI19.8 PPR pts
Floor 7 · median 18.2 · ceiling 34
Safer floor (p10 7 vs 5); Adams's target share has fallen 2 straight weeks (33% → 18%); a 29.5 implied team total.
Medium
Davante AdamsLARWRvs BUF17.5 PPR pts
Floor 5 · median 15.8 · ceiling 32
Shakier floor (p10 5 vs 7); Adams's target share has fallen 2 straight weeks (33% → 18%); Projects 17.5 vs 19.8 PPR points.
MediumAdd more players in Who Should I StartAmon-Ra St. Brown stats and usageDavante Adams stats and usageAll Week 5 projections
Both players come from the same weekly projection: a mean and an 80% range from 2,000 simulated games, scored in your format, and the chance he plays. Start goes to the higher expected points (chance to play × projection); within 10% is a Flex-level close call. The tier ranks each player against everyone at his position this week. Reasons are templates filled with the model's numbers.
Updated Tue, Oct 6, 2:39 PM ETFull methodology
Start St. Brown over Adams in PPR. Safer floor (p10 7 vs 5); Adams's target share has fallen 2 straight weeks (33% → 18%); a 29.5 implied team total.
Amon-Ra St. Brown: his 90th-percentile outcome is 34 PPR points against 32 for Davante Adams, from 2,000 simulated games each.
Amon-Ra St. Brown: a floor (10th percentile) of 7 PPR points vs 5, and a 98% chance to play vs 98%.
PPR: St. Brown 19.8, Adams 17.5; half-PPR: St. Brown 16.4, Adams 14.9; standard: St. Brown 13.0, Adams 12.4 (points if he plays).
