2026 season · Week 5 · WR
Start Nacua over St. Brown in PPR. St. Brown's target share has fallen 3 straight weeks (36% → 22%); Projects 20.1 vs 19.8 PPR points; 9.5 projected targets. In half-PPR scoring it is a toss-up. In standard scoring it is a toss-up.
Amon-Ra St. BrownDETWR@ ARI19.8 PPR pts
Floor 7 · median 18.2 · ceiling 34
St. Brown's target share has fallen 3 straight weeks (36% → 22%); Projects 19.8 vs 20.1 PPR points; BUF allows the most WR points (early-season DvP is a weak signal).
Medium
Puka NacuaLARWRvs BUF20.1 PPR pts
Floor 7 · median 18.3 · ceiling 35
St. Brown's target share has fallen 3 straight weeks (36% → 22%); Projects 20.1 vs 19.8 PPR points; 9.5 projected targets.
LowAdd more players in Who Should I StartAmon-Ra St. Brown stats and usagePuka Nacua stats and usageAll Week 5 projections
Both players come from the same weekly projection: a mean and an 80% range from 2,000 simulated games, scored in your format, and the chance he plays. Start goes to the higher expected points (chance to play × projection); within 10% is a Flex-level close call. The tier ranks each player against everyone at his position this week. Reasons are templates filled with the model's numbers.
Updated Tue, Oct 6, 2:39 PM ETFull methodology
Start Nacua over St. Brown in PPR. St. Brown's target share has fallen 3 straight weeks (36% → 22%); Projects 20.1 vs 19.8 PPR points; 9.5 projected targets. In half-PPR scoring it is a toss-up. In standard scoring it is a toss-up.
Puka Nacua: his 90th-percentile outcome is 35 PPR points against 34 for Amon-Ra St. Brown, from 2,000 simulated games each.
Amon-Ra St. Brown: a floor (10th percentile) of 7 PPR points vs 7, and a 98% chance to play vs 98%.
PPR: St. Brown 19.8, Nacua 20.1; half-PPR: St. Brown 16.4, Nacua 16.6; standard: St. Brown 13.0, Nacua 13.1 (points if he plays).
