2026 season · Week 5 · WR
Start Smith-Njigba over Nacua in PPR. Higher ceiling (p90 40 vs 35); Projects 22.9 vs 20.1 PPR points; 10.7 projected targets.
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEAWRvs SF22.9 PPR pts
Floor 9 · median 20.9 · ceiling 40
Higher ceiling (p90 40 vs 35); Projects 22.9 vs 20.1 PPR points; 10.7 projected targets.
Medium
Puka NacuaLARWRvs BUF20.1 PPR pts
Floor 7 · median 18.3 · ceiling 35
Lower ceiling (p90 35 vs 40); Projects 20.1 vs 22.9 PPR points.
MediumAdd more players in Who Should I StartJaxon Smith-Njigba stats and usagePuka Nacua stats and usageAll Week 5 projections
Both players come from the same weekly projection: a mean and an 80% range from 2,000 simulated games, scored in your format, and the chance he plays. Start goes to the higher expected points (chance to play × projection); within 10% is a Flex-level close call. The tier ranks each player against everyone at his position this week. Reasons are templates filled with the model's numbers.
Updated Tue, Oct 6, 2:39 PM ETFull methodology
Start Smith-Njigba over Nacua in PPR. Higher ceiling (p90 40 vs 35); Projects 22.9 vs 20.1 PPR points; 10.7 projected targets.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba: his 90th-percentile outcome is 40 PPR points against 35 for Puka Nacua, from 2,000 simulated games each.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba: a floor (10th percentile) of 9 PPR points vs 7, and a 98% chance to play vs 98%.
PPR: Smith-Njigba 22.9, Nacua 20.1; half-PPR: Smith-Njigba 18.9, Nacua 16.6; standard: Smith-Njigba 14.9, Nacua 13.1 (points if he plays).
