2026 season · Week 5 · QB

C.J. Stroud vs Lamar Jackson: Who Should I Start in Week 5?

Start Stroud over Jackson in PPR. Projects 16.1 vs 15.1 PPR points.

Scoring

Start Stroud over Jackson in PPR

StartQB2 · #14

C.J. StroudHOUQB@ TEN

16.1 PPR pts

726

Floor 7 · median 15.2 · ceiling 26

Plays: 98%
Implied total: 22.5 (fav by 6.5)
Matchup: Tough · 7th
Usage: –

Projects 16.1 vs 15.1 PPR points.

Medium

FlexQB2 · #15

Lamar JacksonBALQB@ ATL

15.1 PPR pts

725

Floor 7 · median 14.2 · ceiling 25

Plays: 98%
Implied total: 20.3 (dog by 3)
Matchup: Neutral · 13th
Usage: –

Projects 15.1 vs 16.1 PPR points.

Medium

Add more players in Who Should I Start C.J. Stroud stats and usage Lamar Jackson stats and usage All Week 5 projections

How this works

Both players come from the same weekly projection: a mean and an 80% range from 2,000 simulated games, scored in your format, and the chance he plays. Start goes to the higher expected points (chance to play × projection); within 10% is a Flex-level close call. The tier ranks each player against everyone at his position this week. Reasons are templates filled with the model's numbers.

Updated Tue, Oct 6, 2:39 PM ETFull methodology

Frequently asked questions

Should I start C.J. Stroud or Lamar Jackson in Week 5?

Start Stroud over Jackson in PPR. Projects 16.1 vs 15.1 PPR points.

Who has the higher ceiling, C.J. Stroud or Lamar Jackson?

C.J. Stroud: his 90th-percentile outcome is 26 PPR points against 25 for Lamar Jackson, from 2,000 simulated games each.

Who is the safer start, C.J. Stroud or Lamar Jackson?

C.J. Stroud: a floor (10th percentile) of 7 PPR points vs 7, and a 98% chance to play vs 98%.

What are C.J. Stroud's and Lamar Jackson's Week 5 projections?

PPR: Stroud 16.1, Jackson 15.1; half-PPR: Stroud 16.1, Jackson 15.1; standard: Stroud 16.0, Jackson 15.1 (points if he plays).

Side-by-side comparison