2026 season · Week 5 · WR
Start Downs over Washington in PPR. Scoring decides it: in standard Washington would project ahead (0.3 points); Washington's target share has fallen 2 straight weeks (43% → 13%); Projects 13.9 vs 13.3 PPR points. In half-PPR scoring it is a toss-up. In standard scoring the call flips to Washington.
Josh DownsINDWR@ PIT13.9 PPR pts
Floor 4 · median 12.8 · ceiling 25
Scoring decides it: in standard Washington would project ahead (0.3 points); Washington's target share has fallen 2 straight weeks (43% → 13%); Projects 13.9 vs 13.3 PPR points.
Medium
Parker WashingtonJAXWRvs PHI13.3 PPR pts
Floor 4 · median 12.1 · ceiling 25
Scoring decides it: in standard Washington would project ahead (0.3 points); Washington's target share has fallen 2 straight weeks (43% → 13%); Projects 13.3 vs 13.9 PPR points.
MediumAdd more players in Who Should I StartJosh Downs stats and usageParker Washington stats and usageAll Week 5 projections
Both players come from the same weekly projection: a mean and an 80% range from 2,000 simulated games, scored in your format, and the chance he plays. Start goes to the higher expected points (chance to play × projection); within 10% is a Flex-level close call. The tier ranks each player against everyone at his position this week. Reasons are templates filled with the model's numbers.
Updated Tue, Oct 6, 2:39 PM ETFull methodology
Start Downs over Washington in PPR. Scoring decides it: in standard Washington would project ahead (0.3 points); Washington's target share has fallen 2 straight weeks (43% → 13%); Projects 13.9 vs 13.3 PPR points. In half-PPR scoring it is a toss-up. In standard scoring the call flips to Washington.
Josh Downs: his 90th-percentile outcome is 25 PPR points against 25 for Parker Washington, from 2,000 simulated games each.
Josh Downs: a floor (10th percentile) of 4 PPR points vs 4, and a 98% chance to play vs 98%.
PPR: Downs 13.9, Washington 13.3; half-PPR: Downs 11.2, Washington 11.1; standard: Downs 8.6, Washington 8.9 (points if he plays).
