2026 season · Week 5 · WR
Toss-up between Watson and Washington in PPR. Too close to call: 13.3 vs 13.0 projected PPR points; Watson's target share has fallen 2 straight weeks (38% → 10%); Washington's target share has fallen 2 straight weeks (43% → 13%).
Christian WatsonGBWRvs CHI13.6 PPR pts
Floor 4 · median 12.2 · ceiling 25
Too close to call: 13.3 vs 13.0 projected PPR points; Watson's target share has fallen 2 straight weeks (38% → 10%); Washington's target share has fallen 2 straight weeks (43% → 13%).
Medium
Parker WashingtonJAXWRvs PHI13.3 PPR pts
Floor 4 · median 12.1 · ceiling 25
Too close to call: 13.0 vs 13.3 projected PPR points; Washington's target share has fallen 2 straight weeks (43% → 13%); Watson's target share has fallen 2 straight weeks (38% → 10%).
MediumAdd more players in Who Should I StartChristian Watson stats and usageParker Washington stats and usageAll Week 5 projections
Both players come from the same weekly projection: a mean and an 80% range from 2,000 simulated games, scored in your format, and the chance he plays. Start goes to the higher expected points (chance to play × projection); within 10% is a Flex-level close call. The tier ranks each player against everyone at his position this week. Reasons are templates filled with the model's numbers.
Updated Tue, Oct 6, 2:39 PM ETFull methodology
Toss-up between Watson and Washington in PPR. Too close to call: 13.3 vs 13.0 projected PPR points; Watson's target share has fallen 2 straight weeks (38% → 10%); Washington's target share has fallen 2 straight weeks (43% → 13%).
Christian Watson: his 90th-percentile outcome is 25 PPR points against 25 for Parker Washington, from 2,000 simulated games each.
Christian Watson: a floor (10th percentile) of 4 PPR points vs 4, and a 98% chance to play vs 98%.
PPR: Watson 13.6, Washington 13.3; half-PPR: Watson 11.3, Washington 11.1; standard: Watson 9.1, Washington 8.9 (points if he plays).
