2026 season · Week 5 · WR
Start Williams over Watson in PPR. Williams's target share has risen 2 straight weeks (11% → 16%); Watson's target share has fallen 2 straight weeks (38% → 10%); a 29.5 implied team total vs 21.3.
Christian WatsonGBWRvs CHI13.6 PPR pts
Floor 4 · median 12.2 · ceiling 25
Watson's target share has fallen 2 straight weeks (38% → 10%); Williams's target share has risen 2 straight weeks (11% → 16%); a 21.3 implied team total vs 29.5.
Medium
Jameson WilliamsDETWR@ ARI13.9 PPR pts
Floor 4 · median 12.5 · ceiling 26
Williams's target share has risen 2 straight weeks (11% → 16%); Watson's target share has fallen 2 straight weeks (38% → 10%); a 29.5 implied team total vs 21.3.
MediumAdd more players in Who Should I StartChristian Watson stats and usageJameson Williams stats and usageAll Week 5 projections
Both players come from the same weekly projection: a mean and an 80% range from 2,000 simulated games, scored in your format, and the chance he plays. Start goes to the higher expected points (chance to play × projection); within 10% is a Flex-level close call. The tier ranks each player against everyone at his position this week. Reasons are templates filled with the model's numbers.
Updated Tue, Oct 6, 2:39 PM ETFull methodology
Start Williams over Watson in PPR. Williams's target share has risen 2 straight weeks (11% → 16%); Watson's target share has fallen 2 straight weeks (38% → 10%); a 29.5 implied team total vs 21.3.
Jameson Williams: his 90th-percentile outcome is 26 PPR points against 25 for Christian Watson, from 2,000 simulated games each.
Christian Watson: a floor (10th percentile) of 4 PPR points vs 4, and a 98% chance to play vs 98%.
PPR: Watson 13.6, Williams 13.9; half-PPR: Watson 11.3, Williams 11.7; standard: Watson 9.1, Williams 9.6 (points if he plays).
