2026 season · Week 5 · WR
Toss-up between Williams and Downs in PPR. Too close to call: 13.6 vs 13.6 projected PPR points; Williams's target share has risen 2 straight weeks (11% → 16%); a 29.5 implied team total vs 21.0. In half-PPR scoring the call flips to Williams. In standard scoring the call flips to Williams.
Jameson WilliamsDETWR@ ARI13.9 PPR pts
Floor 4 · median 12.5 · ceiling 26
Too close to call: 13.6 vs 13.6 projected PPR points; Williams's target share has risen 2 straight weeks (11% → 16%); a 29.5 implied team total vs 21.0.
Medium
Josh DownsINDWR@ PIT13.9 PPR pts
Floor 4 · median 12.8 · ceiling 25
Too close to call: 13.6 vs 13.6 projected PPR points; Williams's target share has risen 2 straight weeks (11% → 16%); a 21.0 implied team total vs 29.5.
MediumAdd more players in Who Should I StartJameson Williams stats and usageJosh Downs stats and usageAll Week 5 projections
Both players come from the same weekly projection: a mean and an 80% range from 2,000 simulated games, scored in your format, and the chance he plays. Start goes to the higher expected points (chance to play × projection); within 10% is a Flex-level close call. The tier ranks each player against everyone at his position this week. Reasons are templates filled with the model's numbers.
Updated Tue, Oct 6, 2:39 PM ETFull methodology
Toss-up between Williams and Downs in PPR. Too close to call: 13.6 vs 13.6 projected PPR points; Williams's target share has risen 2 straight weeks (11% → 16%); a 29.5 implied team total vs 21.0. In half-PPR scoring the call flips to Williams. In standard scoring the call flips to Williams.
Jameson Williams: his 90th-percentile outcome is 26 PPR points against 25 for Josh Downs, from 2,000 simulated games each.
Josh Downs: a floor (10th percentile) of 4 PPR points vs 4, and a 98% chance to play vs 98%.
PPR: Williams 13.9, Downs 13.9; half-PPR: Williams 11.7, Downs 11.2; standard: Williams 9.6, Downs 8.6 (points if he plays).
