StartRB3 · #31
MarShawn LloydGBRBvs CHI9.4 PPR pts
218
Floor 2 · median 8.3 · ceiling 18
- Plays
- 87%
- Implied total
- 21.3 (dog by 3)
- Matchup
- Neutral · 11th
- Snap share
- 55%▲24
Expected 8.2 vs 7.8 PPR points after the chance to play.
Low2026 season · Week 5 · RB
MarShawn Lloyd vs TreVeyon Henderson: Who Should I Start in Week 5?
Start Lloyd over Henderson in PPR. Expected 8.2 vs 7.8 PPR points after the chance to play. In half-PPR scoring it is a toss-up. In standard scoring it is a toss-up.
Side-by-side comparison
Scoring
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Start Lloyd over Henderson in PPR
MarShawn LloydGBRBvs CHIFlexRB3 · #32
TreVeyon HendersonNERBvs LV8.9 PPR pts
217
Floor 2 · median 7.9 · ceiling 17
- Plays
- 87%
- Implied total
- 24.5 (fav by 3.5)
- Matchup
- Neutral · 23rd
- Snap share
- 37%▼11
Expected 7.8 vs 8.2 PPR points after the chance to play.
LowAdd more players in Who Should I StartMarShawn Lloyd stats and usageTreVeyon Henderson stats and usageAll Week 5 projections
Related start/sit calls
How this works
Both players come from the same weekly projection: a mean and an 80% range from 2,000 simulated games, scored in your format, and the chance he plays. Start goes to the higher expected points (chance to play × projection); within 10% is a Flex-level close call. The tier ranks each player against everyone at his position this week. Reasons are templates filled with the model's numbers.
Updated Tue, Oct 6, 2:39 PM ETFull methodology
Frequently asked questions
Should I start MarShawn Lloyd or TreVeyon Henderson in Week 5?
Start Lloyd over Henderson in PPR. Expected 8.2 vs 7.8 PPR points after the chance to play. In half-PPR scoring it is a toss-up. In standard scoring it is a toss-up.
Who has the higher ceiling, MarShawn Lloyd or TreVeyon Henderson?
MarShawn Lloyd: his 90th-percentile outcome is 18 PPR points against 17 for TreVeyon Henderson, from 2,000 simulated games each.
Who is the safer start, MarShawn Lloyd or TreVeyon Henderson?
MarShawn Lloyd: a floor (10th percentile) of 2 PPR points vs 2, and a 87% chance to play vs 87%.
What are MarShawn Lloyd's and TreVeyon Henderson's Week 5 projections?
PPR: Lloyd 9.4, Henderson 9.0; half-PPR: Lloyd 8.5, Henderson 8.4; standard: Lloyd 7.5, Henderson 7.8 (points if he plays).