2026 season · Week 5 · RB
Toss-up between Lloyd and Allgeier in PPR. Too close to call: 8.2 vs 8.4 projected PPR points; a 21.3 implied team total vs 25.0. In standard scoring the call flips to Allgeier.
MarShawn LloydGBRBvs CHI9.4 PPR pts
Floor 2 · median 8.3 · ceiling 18
Too close to call: 8.2 vs 8.4 projected PPR points; a 21.3 implied team total vs 25.0.
Low
Tyler AllgeierARIRBvs DET9.6 PPR pts
Floor 2 · median 8.5 · ceiling 18
Too close to call: 8.4 vs 8.2 projected PPR points; a 25.0 implied team total vs 21.3.
LowAdd more players in Who Should I StartMarShawn Lloyd stats and usageTyler Allgeier stats and usageAll Week 5 projections
Both players come from the same weekly projection: a mean and an 80% range from 2,000 simulated games, scored in your format, and the chance he plays. Start goes to the higher expected points (chance to play × projection); within 10% is a Flex-level close call. The tier ranks each player against everyone at his position this week. Reasons are templates filled with the model's numbers.
Updated Tue, Oct 6, 2:39 PM ETFull methodology
Toss-up between Lloyd and Allgeier in PPR. Too close to call: 8.2 vs 8.4 projected PPR points; a 21.3 implied team total vs 25.0. In standard scoring the call flips to Allgeier.
Tyler Allgeier: his 90th-percentile outcome is 18 PPR points against 18 for MarShawn Lloyd, from 2,000 simulated games each.
MarShawn Lloyd: a floor (10th percentile) of 2 PPR points vs 2, and a 87% chance to play vs 87%.
PPR: Lloyd 9.4, Allgeier 9.6; half-PPR: Lloyd 8.5, Allgeier 8.7; standard: Lloyd 7.5, Allgeier 7.8 (points if he plays).
