2026 season · for Week 5
Pre-breakout pickups: get them before they pop
Rising usage, points still lagging that usage, rostered in under half of leagues.
Pre-breakout pickups: get them before they pop
| # | Why | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AJ BarnerSEATEvs SFSurging | 67% top-12 | 8% | Expected points 3.0 → 13.8 a game and route share 88% → 97% (est.) in a bigger role; 67% chance of a top-12 week in the next 3. Points (7.0) trail his usage (13.8 expected). |
| 2 |  Malik WillisMIAQBvs CINRising | 51% top-12 | 11% | Rising on small moves across several channels; 51% chance of a top-12 week in the next 3. Points (6.3) trail his usage (13.4 expected). |
| 3 |  Darren WallerCARTERising | 50% top-12 | 34% | Expected points 5.7 → 12.2 a game and route share 42% → 58% (est.) after Xavier Legette’s injury; 50% chance of a top-12 week in the next 3. Points (8.3) trail his usage (12.2 expected). |
| 4 |  Malik WashingtonMIAWRvs CINRising | 47% top-24 | 28% | Expected points 10.2 → 13.6 a game and route share 91% → 96% (est.) after Caleb Douglas’s injury; 47% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. Points (11.6) trail his usage (13.6 expected). |
| 5 |  Oronde Gadsden IILACTEvs DENRising | 47% top-12 | 7% | Expected points 3.9 → 10.2 a game and route share 30% → 59% (est.) after David Njoku’s injury; 47% chance of a top-12 week in the next 3. Points (4.4) trail his usage (10.2 expected). |
| 6 |  Ryan FlournoyDALWRvs TBSurging | 38% top-24 | 5% | Expected points 7.1 → 15.1 a game in a bigger role; 38% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. Points (6.0) trail his usage (15.1 expected). |
| 7 |  Tyson BagentCHIQB@ GBSurging | 37% top-12 | 1% | Expected points 3.7 → 17.6 a game and snap share 14% → 100% after Caleb Williams’s injury; 37% chance of a top-12 week in the next 3. Points (8.8) trail his usage (17.6 expected). |
| 8 |  Antonio WilliamsWASWRvs NYGRising | 35% top-24 | 7% | Expected points 7.7 → 8.6 a game and route share 47% → 59% (est.) after a depth-chart promotion; 35% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. Points (4.3) trail his usage (8.6 expected). |
| 9 |  Athan KaliakmanisWASQBvs NYGSurging | 34% top-12 | 0% | Expected points 1.0 → 15.0 a game and snap share 5% → 84% after Jayden Daniels’s injury; 34% chance of a top-12 week in the next 3. Points (11.0) trail his usage (15.0 expected). |
| 10 |  Mitchell TinsleyCINWR@ MIASurging | 27% top-24 | 0% | Expected points 2.8 → 17.0 a game and snap share 26% → 53% back from an absence; 27% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. Points (7.9) trail his usage (17.0 expected). |
| 11 |  Bryce LanceNOWRvs MINRising | 21% top-24 | 0% | Expected points 3.6 → 6.9 a game and route share 79% → 83% (est.) in a bigger role; 21% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. Points (0.8) trail his usage (6.9 expected). |
| 12 |  DeMario DouglasNEWRvs LVRising | 20% top-24 | 2% | Expected points 6.4 → 8.0 a game in a bigger role; 20% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. Points (4.2) trail his usage (8.1 expected). |
| 13 |  Kaleb JohnsonGBRBvs CHIRising | 19% top-24 | 6% | Expected points 1.7 → 5.7 a game and snap share 14% → 32% in a bigger role; 19% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. Points (2.4) trail his usage (5.7 expected). |
| 14 |  Jalon DanielsTBQB@ DALRising | 18% top-12 | 2% | Expected points 1.0 → 9.0 a game and snap share 5% → 53% in a bigger role; 18% chance of a top-12 week in the next 3. Points (5.2) trail his usage (9.0 expected). |
| 15 |  Eli RaridonNETEvs LVRising | 17% top-12 | 0% | Expected points 2.5 → 5.0 a game and route share 33% → 54% (est.) in a bigger role; 17% chance of a top-12 week in the next 3. Points (2.2) trail his usage (5.0 expected). |
| 16 |  Seth McGowanINDRB@ PITRising | 16% top-24 | 1% | Expected points 1.1 → 5.1 a game and snap share 9% → 22% in a bigger role; 16% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. Points (3.1) trail his usage (5.1 expected). |
| 17 |  Ashton DulinINDWR@ PITRising | 9% top-24 | 0% | Expected points 1.4 → 8.6 a game and route share 19% → 35% (est.) after Alec Pierce’s injury; 9% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. Points (5.9) trail his usage (8.6 expected). |
| 18 |  Skyy MooreGBWRvs CHIRising | 9% top-24 | 1% | Expected points 4.0 → 9.9 a game and route share 23% → 48% (est.) after Jayden Reed’s injury; 9% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. Points (3.5) trail his usage (9.9 expected). |
| 19 |  Kevin Coleman Jr.MIAWRvs CINRising | 9% top-24 | 0% | Expected points 1.4 → 6.9 a game and route share 41% → 61% (est.) after Caleb Douglas’s injury; 9% chance of a top-24 week in the next 3. Points (1.3) trail his usage (6.9 expected). |
How this works
From Ascension: usage rising, points over the last two games at least 2 a game below what that usage usually scores, rostered in under half of leagues. Ranked by the chance of a top-24 (top-12 QB/TE) week in the next three games.
League size sets who counts as available: rostered in under 50% (10-team), 35% (12-team) or 10% (14+ team) of ESPN leagues. Enter your Sleeper league to see only players nobody in it has rostered. Points follow your scoring format.
Sources: Edgehalla projections, ESPN rostered %, nflverse scheduleUpdated Mon, Oct 5, 8:00 PM ET
Frequently asked questions
How is the pre-breakout list ranked?
From Ascension: usage rising, points over the last two games at least 2 a game below what that usage usually scores, rostered in under half of leagues. Ranked by the chance of a top-24 (top-12 QB/TE) week in the next three games.
How do I see only players available in my league?
Paste your Sleeper league ID or URL above the list. We read your league’s rosters from Sleeper and hide everyone already on a team. ESPN and Yahoo leagues use the league-size filter instead.