Week 5 Fantasy Football Projections (Standard)

Each player-week is team volume × his share of it × his efficiency. Team targets, carries and touchdowns come from pace, pass rate and the Vegas line; shares come from recent snap, target, carry and red-zone usage, shrunk toward role averages; efficiency is shrunk hard toward position means. We then simulate the game 2,000 times and score every simulation in each format.

Floor is the 10th percentile and ceiling the 90th percentile of the simulated games: in about 8 of 10 weeks a player should land between them. The tick on the bar is the median. On our 2025 holdout, 77–84% of outcomes for players projected at 8+ PPR points landed inside that range.

Projected points assume he plays. The Play column is the chance he suits up, from the injury report and missed-game history, and rankings use expected points (chance to play × projection). Players ruled out, on injured reserve or on bye are not listed for the week.

On the 2025 holdout season (each week projected only from earlier games), PPR mean absolute error was 6.3 points at QB, 4.22 at RB, 4.29 at WR and 2.94 at TE, better than season-average and last-three-game baselines at every position. Full tables are on the methodology page.

Daily from Tuesday to Sunday morning: injury reports land Wednesday to Friday and lines move all week. A Tuesday projection has no injury report yet, so availability is less certain early in the week.