2026 season · Week 5
Week 5 Fantasy Football Projections (Half PPR)
Every projected QB, RB, WR, TE, kicker and defense for Week 5 in Half PPR: the mean if he plays, the 80% range from 2,000 simulated games, the chance he plays, and the usage and Vegas inputs behind each number.
Week 5 projections
435 players · sorted by expected points · Half scoring
| Player | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Jahmyr GibbsDETRB@ ARI | 25.9 | 98% |
| 2 |  Bijan RobinsonATLRBvs BAL | 21.5 | 98% |
| 3 |  Dak PrescottDALQBvs TB | 21.0 | 98% |
| 4 |  Jared GoffDETQB@ ARI | 20.9 | 98% |
| 5 |  Matthew StaffordLARQBvs BUF | 20.8 | 98% |
| 6 |  Josh AllenBUFQB@ LAR | 20.5 | 98% |
| 7 |  Javonte WilliamsDALRBvs TB | 19.3 | 98% |
| 8 |  Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEAWRvs SF | 18.9 | 98% |
| 9 |  Drake MayeNEQBvs LV | 18.6 | 98% |
| 10 |  Jacoby BrissettARIQBvs DET | 18.6 | 98% |
| 11 |  Kyren WilliamsLARRBvs BUF | 18.6 | 98% |
| 12 |  Joe BurrowCINQB@ MIA | 18.4 | 98% |
| 13 |  Sam DarnoldSEAQBvs SF | 17.8 | 98% |
| 14 |  Jaylen WarrenPITRBvs IND | 17.7 | 98% |
| 15 |  Aaron JonesMINRB@ NO | 17.7 | 98% |
| 16 |  Trevor LawrenceJAXQBvs PHI | 17.2 | 98% |
| 17 |  James CookBUFRB@ LAR | 17.1 | 98% |
| 18 |  Chase BrownCINRB@ MIA | 17.1 | 98% |
| 19 |  Aaron RodgersPITQBvs IND | 16.9 | 98% |
| 20 |  CeeDee LambDALWRvs TB | 16.8 | 98% |
| 21 |  Puka NacuaLARWRvs BUF | 16.6 | 98% |
| 22 |  Brock PurdySFQB@ SEA | 16.5 | 98% |
| 23 |  Amon-Ra St. BrownDETWR@ ARI | 16.4 | 98% |
| 24 |  Bo NixDENQB@ LAC | 16.4 | 98% |
| 25 |  Tyler ShoughNOQBvs MIN | 16.2 | 98% |
| 26 |  Christian McCaffreySFRB@ SEA | 16.1 | 98% |
| 27 |  C.J. StroudHOUQB@ TEN | 16.1 | 98% |
| 28 |  Jonathan TaylorINDRB@ PIT | 15.9 | 98% |
| 29 |  Derrick HenryBALRB@ ATL | 15.2 | 98% |
| 30 |  D'Andre SwiftCHIRB@ GB | 15.2 | 98% |
| 31 |  Lamar JacksonBALQB@ ATL | 15.1 | 98% |
| 32 |  Jordan LoveGBQBvs CHI | 14.9 | 98% |
| 33 |  Davante AdamsLARWRvs BUF | 14.9 | 98% |
| 34 |  Chris OlaveNOWRvs MIN | 14.5 | 98% |
| 35 |  Kirk CousinsLVQB@ NE | 14.4 | 98% |
| 36 |  Michael WilsonARIWRvs DET | 14.3 | 98% |
| 37 |  Trey McBrideARITEvs DET | 14.2 | 98% |
| 38 |  Deshaun WatsonCLEQB@ NYJ | 14.1 | 98% |
| 39 |  Justin HerbertLACQBvs DEN | 14.1 | 98% |
| 40 |  Geno SmithNYJQBvs CLE | 14.0 | 98% |
| 41 |  Michael Penix Jr.ATLQBvs BAL | 14.0 | 98% |
| 42 |  Tee HigginsCINWR@ MIA | 13.9 | 98% |
| 43 |  Kyler MurrayMINQB@ NO | 13.9 | 98% |
| 44 |  Jalen HurtsPHIQB@ JAX | 13.6 | 98% |
| 45 |  Ashton JeantyLVRB@ NE | 13.6 | 98% |
| 46 |  Daniel JonesINDQB@ PIT | 13.6 | 98% |
| 47 |  Zay FlowersBALWR@ ATL | 13.4 | 98% |
| 48 |  Ja'Marr ChaseCINWR@ MIA | 13.3 | 98% |
| 49 |  Garrett WilsonNYJWRvs CLE | 13.0 | 98% |
| 50 |  Jameis WinstonNYGQB@ WAS | 12.8 | 98% |
| 51 |  Nico CollinsHOUWR@ TEN | 12.4 | 98% |
| 52 |  Rhamondre StevensonNERBvs LV | 12.4 | 98% |
| 53 |  Drake LondonATLWRvs BAL | 12.1 | 98% |
| 54 |  George PickensDALWRvs TB | 11.9 | 98% |
| 55 |  Malik WillisMIAQBvs CIN | 11.8 | 98% |
| 56 |  Jameson WilliamsDETWR@ ARI | 11.7 | 98% |
| 57 |  DK MetcalfPITWRvs IND | 11.7 | 98% |
| 58 |  Bucky IrvingTBRB@ DAL | 11.4 | 98% |
| 59 |  Christian WatsonGBWRvs CHI | 11.3 | 98% |
| 60 |  Josh DownsINDWR@ PIT | 11.2 | 98% |
Deciding between two players? Who Should I Start compares them with a verdict and the reasons.
How this works
Projections are if he plays: a mean and an 80% range (p10 to p90) from 2,000 simulated games, scored in every format. Play is the chance he suits up; rankings use expected points (play chance × projection). Team volume comes from pace, pass rate and the Vegas implied total; each player's share from his recent snap, target, carry and red-zone usage, shrunk toward his role.
Matchup is opponent-adjusted defense vs position (rank 1 = toughest). It barely predicts next week early in the season, so the model gives it almost no weight and the chip is muted with a “?” when its reliability is low.
Sources: nflverse play-by-play, snaps and schedules, closing and live betting linesUpdated Tue, Oct 6, 2:39 PM ETFull methodology
Frequently asked questions
How are these fantasy football projections made?
Each player-week is team volume × his share of it × his efficiency. Team targets, carries and touchdowns come from pace, pass rate and the Vegas line; shares come from recent snap, target, carry and red-zone usage, shrunk toward role averages; efficiency is shrunk hard toward position means. We then simulate the game 2,000 times and score every simulation in each format.
What do floor and ceiling mean here?
Floor is the 10th percentile and ceiling the 90th percentile of the simulated games: in about 8 of 10 weeks a player should land between them. The tick on the bar is the median. On our 2025 holdout, 77–84% of outcomes for players projected at 8+ PPR points landed inside that range.
Why are some projections higher than the expected points?
Projected points assume he plays. The Play column is the chance he suits up, from the injury report and missed-game history, and rankings use expected points (chance to play × projection). Players ruled out, on injured reserve or on bye are not listed for the week.
How accurate are the projections?
On the 2025 holdout season (each week projected only from earlier games), PPR mean absolute error was 6.3 points at QB, 4.22 at RB, 4.29 at WR and 2.94 at TE, better than season-average and last-three-game baselines at every position. Full tables are on the methodology page.
When do the projections update?
Daily from Tuesday to Sunday morning: injury reports land Wednesday to Friday and lines move all week. A Tuesday projection has no injury report yet, so availability is less certain early in the week.