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Stack Finder: best line and PP1 stacks for Thursday, May 7

Every forward line and first power-play unit on the Thursday, May 7 slate, ranked by expected goals tonight against the opponent's defense, penalty kill and likely goalie. Top stack: CAR PP1 (Gostisbehere–Ehlers–Aho–Svechnikov–Jarvis) vs PHI.

Data updated:

Stacks with a player who is

Top 10 stacks

  1. #1CARPP1vs PHI0.76 xG

    Shayne Gostisbehere95%, Nikolaj Ehlers92%, Sebastian Aho99%, Andrei Svechnikov97%, Seth Jarvis94%

    Matchup factors →
  2. #2CARL1vs PHI0.53 xG

    Taylor Hall25%, Logan Stankoven65%, Jackson Blake69%

    Matchup factors →
  3. #3PHIPP1vs CAR0.48 xG

    Travis Konecny91%, Noah Cates15%, Trevor Zegras83%, Jamie Drysdale52%, Tyson Foerster38%

    Matchup factors →
  4. #4CARL2vs PHI0.33 xG

    Sebastian Aho99%, Andrei Svechnikov97%, Seth Jarvis94%

    Matchup factors →
  5. #5CARL3vs PHI0.21 xG

    Mark Jankowski0.2%, William Carrier3.3%, Eric Robinson0.1%

    Matchup factors →
  6. #6CARL4vs PHI0.16 xG

    Jordan Staal19%, Jordan Martinook4.3%, Nikolaj Ehlers92%

    Matchup factors →
  7. #7PHIL1vs CAR0.06 xG

    Christian Dvorak15%, Travis Konecny91%, Denver Barkey14%

    Matchup factors →
  8. #8PHIL4vs CAR0.06 xG

    Noah Cates15%, Alex Bump15%, Matvei Michkov83%

    Matchup factors →
  9. #9PHIL2vs CAR0.05 xG

    Owen Tippett77%, Trevor Zegras83%, Porter Martone87%

    Matchup factors →
  10. #10PHIL3vs CAR0.04 xG

    Sean Couturier8.3%, Luke Glendening0.0%, Tyson Foerster38%

    Matchup factors →

By game

CAR @ PHI

How it works

  1. Lines and PP1 come from each team's last three games of shift data: the forward trio with the most 5-on-5 time together, and the power-play five with the most time together.
  2. Unit strength is expected goals for per 60 minutes, recent games plus the season, shrunk toward league average so a hot two-game sample does not dominate.
  3. Matchup: the opponent's 5-on-5 expected goals against per 60 (for lines) or its penalty-kill rate and shorthanded minutes (for PP1), relative to the league.
  4. Goalie: the likely opposing starter from our goalie start model, weighted by probability, with his save % shrunk toward league average; shot-class save % when available.
  5. Stack score = rate × minutes × P(unit intact) × matchup × goalie, in expected goals for tonight, so lines and power plays rank on one scale.

Methodology: How we detect lines · Expected goals · Goalie shot classes · Goalie start model

Frequently asked questions

What is a stack in fantasy hockey?

A stack is a group of teammates who play together, usually a forward line or the first power-play unit, so one goal pays several of your players at once. It is the main strategy in daily fantasy hockey.

How are stacks ranked?

Each unit gets an expected-goals number for tonight: how many chances it creates per 60 minutes (recent games plus season, shrunk toward league average), how many minutes it plays, how likely it is to stay together, how leaky the opponent is at 5-on-5 or shorthanded, and how good the likely opposing goalie is.

Where do the lines come from?

From the NHL shift charts of each team's last three games: the three forwards who share the most 5-on-5 ice time form a line, and the five skaters with the most power-play time together form PP1.

Why does it say "shot-based"?

While a season is being reprocessed with our expected-goals model, unit rates fall back to shots on goal times a league-average 0.075 xG per shot. The ranking logic is the same.