Matchup edge · QB C · WR C · TE myth
Freezing: every call
Outdoor games at 32°F or colder cost passers and receivers points.
2024 backtest
111–72–26
60.7% vs 61.1% baseline
2025 backtest
134–91–30
59.6% vs 61.2% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
–
no graded calls
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB | 23–27–2 | 46.0% | 50.4% |
| WR | 152–75–23 | 67.0% | 63.7% |
| TE | 70–61–31 | 53.4% | 60.9% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 111–72–26 | 60.7% | 61.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 134–91–30 | 59.6% | 61.2% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W13 | Mike GesickiTE CIN | Fade (Freezing vs PIT) | 6.5 | 10.3 | +3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Drew SampleTE CIN | Fade (Freezing vs PIT) | 2.7 | 2.8 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Dawson KnoxTE BUF | Fade (Freezing vs SF) | 7.4 | 7.6 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Quintin MorrisTE BUF | Fade (Freezing vs SF) | 1.0 | 2.4 | +1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Zach DavidsonTE BUF | Fade (Freezing vs SF) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jack StollTE MIA | Fade (Freezing vs GB) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Pat FreiermuthTE PIT | Fade (Freezing vs CIN) | 7.0 | 18.8 | +11.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jake TongesTE SF | Fade (Freezing vs BUF) | 0.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | John FitzPatrickTE GB | Fade (Freezing vs MIA) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tanner ConnerTE MIA | Fade (Freezing vs GB) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Henry PearsonTE GB | Fade (Freezing vs MIA) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Darnell WashingtonTE PIT | Fade (Freezing vs CIN) | 3.3 | 2.0 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Brayden WillisTE SF | Fade (Freezing vs BUF) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Julian HillTE MIA | Fade (Freezing vs GB) | 2.5 | 1.5 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Ben SimsTE GB | Fade (Freezing vs MIA) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tucker KraftTE GB | Fade (Freezing vs MIA) | 8.8 | 13.8 | +5.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Luke MusgraveTE GB | Fade (Freezing vs MIA) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Cam GrandyTE CIN | Fade (Freezing vs PIT) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Erick AllTE CIN | Fade (Freezing vs PIT) | 3.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
NewerPage 2 of 2 · 119 calls
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse