Matchup edge · QB C · WR C · TE myth

Freezing: every call

Outdoor games at 32°F or colder cost passers and receivers points.

2024 backtest

111–72–26

60.7% vs 61.1% baseline

2025 backtest

134–91–30

59.6% vs 61.2% baseline

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

–

no graded calls

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

Position	W–L–P	Win %	Baseline
QB	23–27–2	46.0%	50.4%
WR	152–75–23	67.0%	63.7%
TE	70–61–31	53.4%	60.9%

Expected effect (PPR)	W–L–P	Win %	Baseline
flag	111–72–26	60.7%	61.1%
0.25–0.5	134–91–30	59.6%	61.2%

Call log

SeasonAll 2024 2025 2026

SourceAll Backtest Backtest (after the fact)Live

PositionAll QB WR TE

ResultAll ✅ Win ❌ Loss Push Void Not graded

Freezing calls, newest first
Week	Player	Call	Proj	Actual	Margin	Result	Source · made
2025 W14	Ke'Shawn WilliamsWR CIN	Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.2)	1.1	–	–	void	Backtest · 2025-12-07 16:30 UTC
2025 W14	Jalen RoyalsWR KC	Fade (Freezing vs HOU, expected −0.2)	0.5	–	–	void	Backtest · 2025-12-07 23:50 UTC
2025 W14	Matthew GoldenWR GB	Fade (Freezing vs CHI, expected −0.2)	6.5	0.0	−6.5	void	Backtest · 2025-12-07 19:55 UTC
2025 W14	Luther Burden IIIWR CHI	Fade (Freezing vs GB, expected −0.2)	7.1	11.0	+3.9	❌	Backtest · 2025-12-07 19:55 UTC
2025 W13	Chris ManhertzTE NYG	Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected +0.3)	0.2	0.0	−0.2	push	Backtest · 2025-12-01 23:45 UTC
2025 W13	Jameis WinstonQB NYG	Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.5)	13.9	–	–	void	Backtest · 2025-12-01 23:45 UTC
2025 W13	Stefon DiggsWR NE	Fade (Freezing vs NYG, expected −0.2)	12.5	5.6	−6.9	✅	Backtest · 2025-12-01 23:45 UTC
2025 W13	Austin HooperTE NE	Fade (Freezing vs NYG, expected +0.3)	4.3	0.0	−4.3	✅	Backtest · 2025-12-01 23:45 UTC
2025 W13	Alex EricksonWR NE	Fade (Freezing vs NYG, expected −0.2)	1.7	–	–	void	Backtest · 2025-12-01 23:45 UTC
2025 W13	Hunter HenryTE NE	Fade (Freezing vs NYG, expected +0.3)	10.6	11.3	+0.7	❌	Backtest · 2025-12-01 23:45 UTC
2025 W13	Mack HollinsWR NE	Fade (Freezing vs NYG, expected −0.2)	9.4	5.3	−4.1	✅	Backtest · 2025-12-01 23:45 UTC
2025 W13	Ray-Ray McCloudWR NYG	Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2)	2.3	–	–	void	Backtest · 2025-12-01 23:45 UTC
2025 W13	Darius SlaytonWR NYG	Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2)	6.9	14.1	+7.2	❌	Backtest · 2025-12-01 23:45 UTC
2025 W13	Gunner OlszewskiWR NYG	Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2)	1.3	0.0	−1.3	void	Backtest · 2025-12-01 23:45 UTC
2025 W13	Isaiah HodginsWR NYG	Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2)	6.7	1.4	−5.3	✅	Backtest · 2025-12-01 23:45 UTC
2025 W13	Ihmir Smith-MarsetteWR NYG	Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2)	1.1	–	–	void	Backtest · 2025-12-01 23:45 UTC
2025 W13	Zach DavidsonTE NYG	Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected +0.3)	1.0	–	–	void	Backtest · 2025-12-01 23:45 UTC
2025 W13	Daniel BellingerTE NYG	Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected +0.3)	2.8	0.0	−2.8	✅	Backtest · 2025-12-01 23:45 UTC
2025 W13	Wan'Dale RobinsonWR NYG	Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2)	13.1	10.4	−2.7	✅	Backtest · 2025-12-01 23:45 UTC
2025 W13	Kayshon BoutteWR NE	Fade (Freezing vs NYG, expected −0.2)	8.4	13.5	+5.0	❌	Backtest · 2025-12-01 23:45 UTC
2025 W13	DeMario DouglasWR NE	Fade (Freezing vs NYG, expected −0.2)	6.5	6.3	−0.2	push	Backtest · 2025-12-01 23:45 UTC
2025 W13	Jalin HyattWR NYG	Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2)	3.1	–	–	void	Backtest · 2025-12-01 23:45 UTC
2025 W13	Jack WestoverTE NE	Fade (Freezing vs NYG, expected +0.3)	0.3	0.0	−0.3	push	Backtest · 2025-12-01 23:45 UTC
2025 W13	Malik NabersWR NYG	Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2)	11.2	–	–	void	Backtest · 2025-12-01 23:45 UTC
2025 W13	Jaheim BellTE NE	Fade (Freezing vs NYG, expected +0.3)	0.6	–	–	void	Backtest · 2025-12-01 23:45 UTC
2025 W13	Theo JohnsonTE NYG	Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected +0.3)	8.0	5.9	−2.1	✅	Backtest · 2025-12-01 23:45 UTC
2025 W13	Drake MayeQB NE	Fade (Freezing vs NYG, expected −0.5)	20.6	20.5	−0.1	push	Backtest · 2025-12-01 23:45 UTC
2025 W13	Javon BakerWR NE	Fade (Freezing vs NYG, expected −0.2)	1.5	–	–	void	Backtest · 2025-12-01 23:45 UTC
2025 W13	Ja'Lynn PolkWR NE	Fade (Freezing vs NYG, expected −0.2)	2.6	–	–	void	Backtest · 2025-12-01 23:45 UTC
2025 W13	Kyle WilliamsWR NE	Fade (Freezing vs NYG, expected −0.2)	2.2	10.3	+8.1	❌	Backtest · 2025-12-01 23:45 UTC
2025 W13	Thomas Fidone IITE NYG	Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected +0.3)	0.2	–	–	void	Backtest · 2025-12-01 23:45 UTC
2025 W13	Dalen CambreWR NYG	Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2)	0.7	0.0	−0.7	✅	Backtest · 2025-12-01 23:45 UTC
2025 W13	Beaux CollinsWR NYG	Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2)	1.4	–	–	void	Backtest · 2025-12-01 23:45 UTC
2025 W13	Efton Chism IIIWR NE	Fade (Freezing vs NYG, expected −0.2)	0.4	0.0	−0.4	push	Backtest · 2025-12-01 23:45 UTC
2025 W13	Jaxson DartQB NYG	Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.5)	15.3	13.6	−1.7	✅	Backtest · 2025-12-01 23:45 UTC

NewerPage 5 of 5 · 435 calls

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse