Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB C · WR C · TE myth

Freezing: every call

Outdoor games at 32°F or colder cost passers and receivers points.

2024 backtest

111–72–26

60.7% vs 61.1% baseline

Win rate 60.7% (95% 53.4%–67.4%) vs baseline 61.1%

2025 backtest

134–91–30

59.6% vs 61.2% baseline

Win rate 59.6% (95% 53.0%–65.8%) vs baseline 61.2%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

–

no graded calls

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
QB23–27–246.0%50.4%
WR152–75–2367.0%63.7%
TE70–61–3153.4%60.9%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag111–72–2660.7%61.1%
0.25–0.5134–91–3059.6%61.2%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Freezing calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W18Aaron RodgersQB PITFade (Freezing vs BAL, expected −0.5)12.217.8+5.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Brady CookQB NYJFade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.5)7.49.1+1.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Drake MayeQB NEFade (Freezing vs NYJ, expected −0.5)21.332.4+11.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Shedeur SandersQB CLEFade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.5)8.811.2+2.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Aaron RodgersQB PITFade (Freezing vs MIA, expected −0.5)15.117.0+1.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Josh AllenQB BUFFade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.5)20.224.5+4.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Tua TagovailoaQB MIAFade (Freezing vs PIT, expected −0.5)11.716.2+4.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Jalen HurtsQB PHIFade (Freezing vs LV, expected −0.5)18.822.9+4.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Drake MayeQB NEFade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.5)17.620.5+2.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Caleb WilliamsQB CHIFade (Freezing vs CLE, expected −0.5)16.619.0+2.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Jaxson DartQB NYGFade (Freezing vs WAS, expected −0.5)17.922.1+4.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W14Josh AllenQB BUFFade (Freezing vs CIN, expected −0.5)22.537.8+15.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W14Jordan LoveQB GBFade (Freezing vs CHI, expected −0.5)17.019.3+2.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W14Joe BurrowQB CINFade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.5)17.423.4+6.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W14Caleb WilliamsQB CHIFade (Freezing vs GB, expected −0.5)14.314.9+0.7❌Backtest ·
2024 W18Tanner McKeeQB PHIFade (Freezing vs NYG)10.318.9+8.6❌Backtest ·
2024 W18Bo NixQB DENFade (Freezing vs KC)19.833.5+13.8❌Backtest ·
2024 W16Jared GoffQB DETFade (Freezing vs CHI)18.725.3+6.6❌Backtest ·
2024 W16Patrick MahomesQB KCFade (Freezing vs HOU)17.223.7+6.5❌Backtest ·
2024 W16C.J. StroudQB HOUFade (Freezing vs KC)13.816.1+2.3❌Backtest ·
2024 W16Drake MayeQB NEFade (Freezing vs BUF)12.517.4+5.0❌Backtest ·
2024 W16Jayden DanielsQB WASFade (Freezing vs PHI)18.034.4+16.4❌Backtest ·
2024 W16Caleb WilliamsQB CHIFade (Freezing vs DET)15.522.8+7.2❌Backtest ·
2024 W13Russell WilsonQB PITFade (Freezing vs CIN)14.026.9+12.9❌Backtest ·
2024 W13Josh AllenQB BUFFade (Freezing vs SF)19.428.4+9.0❌Backtest ·
2024 W13Tua TagovailoaQB MIAFade (Freezing vs GB)14.625.2+10.6❌Backtest ·
2024 W13Jordan LoveQB GBFade (Freezing vs MIA)16.519.0+2.5❌Backtest ·

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse