Matchup edge · QB C · WR C · TE myth
Freezing: every call
Outdoor games at 32°F or colder cost passers and receivers points.
2024 backtest
111–72–26
60.7% vs 61.1% baseline
2025 backtest
134–91–30
59.6% vs 61.2% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
–
no graded calls
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB | 23–27–2 | 46.0% | 50.4% |
| WR | 152–75–23 | 67.0% | 63.7% |
| TE | 70–61–31 | 53.4% | 60.9% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 111–72–26 | 60.7% | 61.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 134–91–30 | 59.6% | 61.2% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W18 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NYJ, expected −0.5) | 19.5 | 0.0 | −19.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Tyler HuntleyQB BAL | Fade (Freezing vs PIT, expected −0.5) | 14.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Justin FieldsQB NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.5) | 10.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jameis WinstonQB NYG | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.5) | 13.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jameis WinstonQB CLE | Fade (Freezing vs BAL) | 7.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Kenny PickettQB PHI | Fade (Freezing vs NYG) | 11.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Dorian Thompson-RobinsonQB CLE | Fade (Freezing vs BAL) | 7.8 | 0.8 | −7.0 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jalen HurtsQB PHI | Fade (Freezing vs WAS) | 19.9 | 4.5 | −15.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Brandon AllenQB SF | Fade (Freezing vs BUF) | 11.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse