Matchup edge · QB C · WR C · TE myth
Freezing: every call
Outdoor games at 32°F or colder cost passers and receivers points.
2024 backtest
111–72–26
60.7% vs 61.1% baseline
2025 backtest
134–91–30
59.6% vs 61.2% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
–
no graded calls
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB | 23–27–2 | 46.0% | 50.4% |
| WR | 152–75–23 | 67.0% | 63.7% |
| TE | 70–61–31 | 53.4% | 60.9% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 111–72–26 | 60.7% | 61.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 134–91–30 | 59.6% | 61.2% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W18 | Drake MayeQB NE | Fade (Freezing vs MIA, expected −0.5) | 22.5 | 15.7 | −6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Quinn EwersQB MIA | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.5) | 9.2 | 8.4 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Brady CookQB NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.5) | 9.3 | 4.2 | −5.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Fade (Freezing vs CLE, expected −0.5) | 19.8 | 6.9 | −12.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Marcus MariotaQB WAS | Fade (Freezing vs NYG, expected −0.5) | 16.3 | 14.7 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Lamar JacksonQB BAL | Fade (Freezing vs CIN, expected −0.5) | 19.9 | 14.6 | −5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Joe BurrowQB CIN | Fade (Freezing vs BAL, expected −0.5) | 18.3 | 5.5 | −12.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Kenny PickettQB LV | Fade (Freezing vs PHI, expected −0.5) | 7.5 | 1.3 | −6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Shedeur SandersQB CLE | Fade (Freezing vs CHI, expected −0.5) | 9.0 | 3.5 | −5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Patrick MahomesQB KC | Fade (Freezing vs HOU, expected −0.5) | 17.8 | 6.3 | −11.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Fade (Freezing vs KC, expected −0.5) | 13.4 | 12.6 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jaxson DartQB NYG | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.5) | 15.3 | 13.6 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Russell WilsonQB PIT | Fade (Freezing vs CIN) | 16.0 | 11.5 | −4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Carson WentzQB KC | Fade (Freezing vs DEN) | 10.3 | 3.9 | −6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Lamar JacksonQB BAL | Fade (Freezing vs CLE) | 25.8 | 23.0 | −2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Drew LockQB NYG | Fade (Freezing vs PHI) | 11.2 | 7.8 | −3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jordan LoveQB GB | Fade (Freezing vs CHI) | 15.5 | 2.8 | −12.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Joe BurrowQB CIN | Fade (Freezing vs PIT) | 20.7 | 13.0 | −7.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Caleb WilliamsQB CHI | Fade (Freezing vs GB) | 12.4 | 10.9 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Aaron RodgersQB NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs LAR) | 15.7 | 12.8 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Fade (Freezing vs NYJ) | 16.4 | 6.0 | −10.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NE) | 25.0 | 11.2 | −13.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Brock PurdyQB SF | Fade (Freezing vs BUF) | 13.9 | 2.2 | −11.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse