Matchup edge · QB C · WR C · TE myth
Freezing: every call
Outdoor games at 32°F or colder cost passers and receivers points.
2024 backtest
111–72–26
60.7% vs 61.1% baseline
2025 backtest
134–91–30
59.6% vs 61.2% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
–
no graded calls
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB | 23–27–2 | 46.0% | 50.4% |
| WR | 152–75–23 | 67.0% | 63.7% |
| TE | 70–61–31 | 53.4% | 60.9% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 111–72–26 | 60.7% | 61.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 134–91–30 | 59.6% | 61.2% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W18 | Aaron RodgersQB PIT | Fade (Freezing vs BAL, expected −0.5) | 12.2 | 17.8 | +5.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NYJ, expected −0.5) | 19.5 | 0.0 | −19.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Tyler HuntleyQB BAL | Fade (Freezing vs PIT, expected −0.5) | 14.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Drake MayeQB NE | Fade (Freezing vs MIA, expected −0.5) | 22.5 | 15.7 | −6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Quinn EwersQB MIA | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.5) | 9.2 | 8.4 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Brady CookQB NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.5) | 7.4 | 9.1 | +1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Justin FieldsQB NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.5) | 10.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Drake MayeQB NE | Fade (Freezing vs NYJ, expected −0.5) | 21.3 | 32.4 | +11.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Brady CookQB NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.5) | 9.3 | 4.2 | −5.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Fade (Freezing vs CLE, expected −0.5) | 19.8 | 6.9 | −12.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Shedeur SandersQB CLE | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.5) | 8.8 | 11.2 | +2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Aaron RodgersQB PIT | Fade (Freezing vs MIA, expected −0.5) | 15.1 | 17.0 | +1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Marcus MariotaQB WAS | Fade (Freezing vs NYG, expected −0.5) | 16.3 | 14.7 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Lamar JacksonQB BAL | Fade (Freezing vs CIN, expected −0.5) | 19.9 | 14.6 | −5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.5) | 20.2 | 24.5 | +4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tua TagovailoaQB MIA | Fade (Freezing vs PIT, expected −0.5) | 11.7 | 16.2 | +4.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jalen HurtsQB PHI | Fade (Freezing vs LV, expected −0.5) | 18.8 | 22.9 | +4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Joe BurrowQB CIN | Fade (Freezing vs BAL, expected −0.5) | 18.3 | 5.5 | −12.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Kenny PickettQB LV | Fade (Freezing vs PHI, expected −0.5) | 7.5 | 1.3 | −6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Drake MayeQB NE | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.5) | 17.6 | 20.5 | +2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Caleb WilliamsQB CHI | Fade (Freezing vs CLE, expected −0.5) | 16.6 | 19.0 | +2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Shedeur SandersQB CLE | Fade (Freezing vs CHI, expected −0.5) | 9.0 | 3.5 | −5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jaxson DartQB NYG | Fade (Freezing vs WAS, expected −0.5) | 17.9 | 22.1 | +4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Patrick MahomesQB KC | Fade (Freezing vs HOU, expected −0.5) | 17.8 | 6.3 | −11.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Fade (Freezing vs CIN, expected −0.5) | 22.5 | 37.8 | +15.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Jordan LoveQB GB | Fade (Freezing vs CHI, expected −0.5) | 17.0 | 19.3 | +2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Joe BurrowQB CIN | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.5) | 17.4 | 23.4 | +6.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Fade (Freezing vs KC, expected −0.5) | 13.4 | 12.6 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Caleb WilliamsQB CHI | Fade (Freezing vs GB, expected −0.5) | 14.3 | 14.9 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jameis WinstonQB NYG | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.5) | 13.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Drake MayeQB NE | Fade (Freezing vs NYG, expected −0.5) | 20.6 | 20.5 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jaxson DartQB NYG | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.5) | 15.3 | 13.6 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse