Matchup edge · QB C · WR C · TE myth
Freezing: every call
Outdoor games at 32°F or colder cost passers and receivers points.
2024 backtest
111–72–26
60.7% vs 61.1% baseline
2025 backtest
134–91–30
59.6% vs 61.2% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
–
no graded calls
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB | 23–27–2 | 46.0% | 50.4% |
| WR | 152–75–23 | 67.0% | 63.7% |
| TE | 70–61–31 | 53.4% | 60.9% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 111–72–26 | 60.7% | 61.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 134–91–30 | 59.6% | 61.2% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W18 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Fade (Freezing vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 5.5 | 5.2 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | CJ DippreTE NE | Fade (Freezing vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Fade (Freezing vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 13.6 | 13.9 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jelani WoodsTE NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected +0.3) | 1.2 | 1.4 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jack WestoverTE NE | Fade (Freezing vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Brenden BatesTE CLE | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Chris ManhertzTE NYG | Fade (Freezing vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Grant CalcaterraTE PHI | Fade (Freezing vs LV, expected +0.3) | 1.5 | 1.4 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Cameron LatuTE PHI | Fade (Freezing vs LV, expected +0.3) | 0.1 | 0.0 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jack WestoverTE NE | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Brenden BatesTE CLE | Fade (Freezing vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Robert TonyanTE KC | Fade (Freezing vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Durham SmytheTE CHI | Fade (Freezing vs GB, expected +0.3) | 0.8 | 1.2 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Chris ManhertzTE NYG | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected +0.3) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jack WestoverTE NE | Fade (Freezing vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Marcedes LewisTE CHI | Fade (Freezing vs GB) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Greg DulcichTE NYG | Fade (Freezing vs PHI) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | John FitzPatrickTE GB | Fade (Freezing vs CHI) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Tucker KraftTE GB | Fade (Freezing vs CHI) | 7.9 | 7.6 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Luke MusgraveTE GB | Fade (Freezing vs CHI) | 2.7 | 2.9 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Brenden BatesTE CLE | Fade (Freezing vs BAL) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Marcedes LewisTE CHI | Fade (Freezing vs DET) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | C.J. UzomahTE PHI | Fade (Freezing vs WAS) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Anthony FirkserTE KC | Fade (Freezing vs HOU) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Gerald EverettTE CHI | Fade (Freezing vs DET) | 1.2 | 1.6 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Irv SmithTE HOU | Fade (Freezing vs KC) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | E.J. JenkinsTE PHI | Fade (Freezing vs WAS) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jaheim BellTE NE | Fade (Freezing vs BUF) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Durham SmytheTE MIA | Fade (Freezing vs GB) | 1.7 | 1.8 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Drew SampleTE CIN | Fade (Freezing vs PIT) | 2.7 | 2.8 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Dawson KnoxTE BUF | Fade (Freezing vs SF) | 7.4 | 7.6 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse