Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB C · WR C · TE myth

Freezing: every call

Outdoor games at 32°F or colder cost passers and receivers points.

2024 backtest

111–72–26

60.7% vs 61.1% baseline

Win rate 60.7% (95% 53.4%–67.4%) vs baseline 61.1%

2025 backtest

134–91–30

59.6% vs 61.2% baseline

Win rate 59.6% (95% 53.0%–65.8%) vs baseline 61.2%

2026 live (from Week 5)

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first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

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no graded calls

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
QB23–27–246.0%50.4%
WR152–75–2367.0%63.7%
TE70–61–3153.4%60.9%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag111–72–2660.7%61.1%
0.25–0.5134–91–3059.6%61.2%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Freezing calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W18MyCole PruittTE PITFade (Freezing vs BAL, expected +0.3)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Darren WallerTE MIAFade (Freezing vs NE, expected +0.3)6.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Dawson KnoxTE BUFFade (Freezing vs NYJ, expected +0.3)7.510.4+2.9voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Kenny YeboahTE NYJFade (Freezing vs BUF, expected +0.3)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Tanner ConnerTE MIAFade (Freezing vs NE, expected +0.3)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Darnell WashingtonTE PITFade (Freezing vs BAL, expected +0.3)4.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Jaheim BellTE NEFade (Freezing vs MIA, expected +0.3)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Hayden RucciTE MIAFade (Freezing vs NE, expected +0.3)0.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Kenny YeboahTE NYJFade (Freezing vs NE, expected +0.3)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Zack KuntzTE NYJFade (Freezing vs NE, expected +0.3)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Jaheim BellTE NEFade (Freezing vs NYJ, expected +0.3)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Jordan AkinsTE CLEFade (Freezing vs BUF, expected +0.3)3.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Keleki LatuTE BUFFade (Freezing vs CLE, expected +0.3)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Zach ErtzTE WASFade (Freezing vs NYG, expected +0.3)9.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15MyCole PruittTE PITFade (Freezing vs MIA, expected +0.3)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15C.J. UzomahTE PHIFade (Freezing vs LV, expected +0.3)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Gerald EverettTE CHIFade (Freezing vs CLE, expected +0.3)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Jordan AkinsTE CLEFade (Freezing vs CHI, expected +0.3)3.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Ian ThomasTE LVFade (Freezing vs PHI, expected +0.3)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Stephen CarlsonTE CHIFade (Freezing vs CLE, expected +0.3)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Albert OkwuegbunamTE LVFade (Freezing vs PHI, expected +0.3)3.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Zach DavidsonTE NYGFade (Freezing vs WAS, expected +0.3)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Tanner ConnerTE MIAFade (Freezing vs PIT, expected +0.3)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15E.J. JenkinsTE PHIFade (Freezing vs LV, expected +0.3)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Tanner McLachlanTE CINFade (Freezing vs BAL, expected +0.3)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Jaheim BellTE NEFade (Freezing vs BUF, expected +0.3)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Hayden RucciTE MIAFade (Freezing vs PIT, expected +0.3)0.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Cam GrandyTE CINFade (Freezing vs BAL, expected +0.3)0.80.0−0.8voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Thomas Fidone IITE NYGFade (Freezing vs WAS, expected +0.3)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Keleki LatuTE BUFFade (Freezing vs NE, expected +0.3)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Carter RunyonTE LVFade (Freezing vs PHI, expected +0.3)0.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Gerald EverettTE CHIFade (Freezing vs GB, expected +0.3)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Irv SmithTE HOUFade (Freezing vs KC, expected +0.3)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Stephen CarlsonTE CHIFade (Freezing vs GB, expected +0.3)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Harrison BryantTE HOUFade (Freezing vs KC, expected +0.3)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Peyton HendershotTE KCFade (Freezing vs HOU, expected +0.3)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Tucker KraftTE GBFade (Freezing vs CHI, expected +0.3)8.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Baylor CuppTE KCFade (Freezing vs HOU, expected +0.3)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Tanner McLachlanTE CINFade (Freezing vs BUF, expected +0.3)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Cam GrandyTE CINFade (Freezing vs BUF, expected +0.3)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Jared WileyTE KCFade (Freezing vs HOU, expected +0.3)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Keleki LatuTE BUFFade (Freezing vs CIN, expected +0.3)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Zach DavidsonTE NYGFade (Freezing vs NE, expected +0.3)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Jaheim BellTE NEFade (Freezing vs NYG, expected +0.3)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Thomas Fidone IITE NYGFade (Freezing vs NE, expected +0.3)0.2––voidBacktest ·

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse